简短通讯:关于龙卷风发生概率的通用公式

IF 4.2 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-11 DOI:10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023

R. Ingrosso, P. Lionello, M. Miglietta, G. Salvadori

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要提出了一种方法学方法，以对流可用势能和风切变(或风暴相对螺旋度)的函数来提供龙卷风发生概率的解析式(指数式)表达式。所得到的表达式允许使用由天气预报和气候模式计算的变量来计算龙卷风发生的概率，从而弥补了在数值模拟中解决这些现象所需的分辨率的不足。

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Brief communication: Towards a universal formula for the probability of tornadoes

Abstract. A methodological approach is proposed to provide an analytical (exponential-like) expression for the probability of occurrence of tornadoes as a function of the convective available potential energy and the wind shear (or, alternatively, the storm relative helicity). The resulting expression allows the probability of tornado occurrence to be calculated using variables that are computed by weather prediction and climate models, thus compensating for the lack of resolution needed to resolve these phenomena in numerical simulations.

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来源期刊

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

6.50%

发文量

192

审稿时长

3.8 months

期刊介绍： Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) is an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences. Embracing a holistic Earth system science approach, NHESS serves a wide and diverse community of research scientists, practitioners, and decision makers concerned with detection of natural hazards, monitoring and modelling, vulnerability and risk assessment, and the design and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies, including economical, societal, and educational aspects.