South East Asian countries’ policies toward a rising China: lessons from Vietnam’s hedging response to the Belt and Road Initiative

ABSTRACT The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) not only marks a significant change in Chinese foreign policy but also brings benefits and challenges to countries in its region, especially those South East Asian states that have long existed under Beijing’s influence. This article argues that South East Asian countries have followed different policies in response to the BRI because of their different levels of economic development and each state’s political and strategic calculations regarding their relations with China. The article also points out that having bordered China for more than 2000 years, and having experienced ups and downs in their bi-lateral relations, Vietnam has hedged against the BRI by showing support to the initiative but limiting its participation in it. Vietnam has pushed back against BRI investments due to the fear of falling into China’s debt trap and the consequent adverse impacts on security and sovereignty, and it has enhanced cooperation with other states in infrastructure investments to avoid depending on Chinese capital. Vietnam’s hedging policy towards the BRI also offers lessons for regional countries about diversifying relations with other powerful states and avoiding dependence on or opposition to an emergent power.