酒精税政策干预对降低俄罗斯暴力死亡率的有效性

Y. Razvodovsky
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摘要

背景:许多专家认为,酗酒伏特加是俄罗斯外因死亡率高得惊人的主要原因。目的:评估2010年至2015年俄罗斯酒精税与暴力死亡率之间的关系。方法:比较2010 - 2015年伏特加酒消费税和暴力死亡率的变化趋势。结果:斯皮尔曼的相关分析表明,伏特加的消费税税率与自杀、杀人、意外溺水、因暴露于烟雾、火灾和火焰而死亡以及致命跌倒之间存在统计学上显著的负相关关系。结论:本研究的结果表明,伏特加的消费税税率与俄罗斯暴力死亡率之间存在负相关的总体关系。鉴于这些证据,提高伏特加的消费税似乎是一项有效的政策,以减少俄罗斯的暴力死亡率。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Effectiveness of Alcohol Tax Policy Intervention for Reducing Violent Mortality Rates in Russia
Background: Many experts believe that binge drinking of vodka is the main cause of the strikingly high mortality from external causes in Russia. Objectives: To assess the relationship between alcohol taxes and violent mortality rates in Russia from 2010 to 2015. Methods: Trends in the excise tax rates for vodka and violent mortality rates between 2010 and 2015 were compared. Results: Spearman’s correlation analysis suggests a statistically significant inverse relationship between excise tax rates for vodka and suicides, homicides, accidental drowning, mortality due to exposure to smoke, fire and flames and fatal falls. Conclusions: The results of this study suggest an inverse aggregate-level relationship between excise tax rates for vodka and violent mortality rates in Russia. Given this evidence, raising excise tax rates for vodka appears to be an effective policy to reduce violent mortality rates in Russia.
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