Honda–Tate theory for Shimura varieties

A Shimura variety of Hodge type is a moduli space for abelian varieties equipped with a certain collection of Hodge cycles. We show that the Newton strata on such varieties are non-empty provided the corresponding group G is quasi-split at p, confirming a conjecture of Fargues and Rapoport in this case. Under the same condition, we conjecture that every mod p isogeny class on such a variety contains the reduction of a special point. This is a refinement of Honda-Tate theory. We prove a large part of this conjecture for Shimura varieties of PEL type. Our results make no assumption on the availability of a good integral model for the Shimura variety. In particular, the group G may be ramified at p.