海湾合作委员会国家经济增长对就业的影响

IF 0.9 Q3 ECONOMICS

Scientific Annals of Economics and Business Pub Date : 2021-03-22 DOI:10.47743/SAEB-2021-0004

O. Ben-Salha, M. Zmami

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引用次数: 5

摘要

本研究的目的是分析1970年至2017年间海湾合作委员会六个国家的就业增长强度。为此，提出了一种分为两步的计量经济学方法。首先，我们使用基于卡尔曼滤波器的时变参数模型来估计增长的时变就业强度。其次，我们使用Pooled Mean Group估计量确定了获得的增长就业强度的短期和长期决定因素。分析发现，弹性在0.4和0.6之间，并且随着时间的推移具有增加的模式。研究结果表明，从长远来看，就业强度受到贸易自由化、服务业在国内生产总值中的份额、劳动年龄人口增长和城市化的积极影响，而宏观经济波动则产生负面影响。从短期来看，贸易自由化和自然资源租金对就业强度产生了不利但微弱的影响。在此基础上，提出了一些政策建议。

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The Effect of Economic Growth on Employment in GCC Countries

The objective of this research is to analyze the employment intensity of growth in six Gulf Cooperation Council countries between 1970 and 2017. To this end, a two-step econometric methodology is proposed. First, we estimate the time-varying employment intensity of growth using the time-varying parameters model based on the Kalman filter. Second, we identify the short and long-run determinants of the obtained employment intensity of growth using the Pooled Mean Group estimator. The analysis uncovers that elasticities range between 0.4 and 0.6 and has an increasing pattern over time. Findings reveal that in the long-run, the employment intensity is positively affected by trade liberalization, the share of services in GDP, the working-age population growth, and urbanization, while macroeconomic volatility has a negative impact. In the short-run, trade liberalization and natural resource rents exert adverse but weak effects on employment intensity. Based on these findings, some policy recommendations are drawn.

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来源期刊

Scientific Annals of Economics and Business ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

10 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal called Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (formerly Analele ştiinţifice ale Universităţii "Al.I. Cuza" din Iaşi. Ştiinţe economice / Scientific Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi. Economic Sciences), was first published in 1954. It is published under the care of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, the oldest higher education institution in Romania, a place of excellence and innovation in education and research since 1860. Throughout its editorial life, the journal has been continuously improving. Renowned professors, well-known in the country and abroad, have published in this journal. The quality of the published materials is ensured both through their review by external reviewers of the institution and by the editorial staff that includes professors for each area of interest. The journal published papers in the following main sections: Accounting; Finance, Money and Banking; Management, Marketing and Communication; Microeconomics and Macroeconomics; Statistics and Econometrics; The Society of Knowledge and Business Information Systems.