农业生产中的风险评估:土壤保持战略及其环境和经济方面——巴伐利亚的案例研究

Q4 Agricultural and Biological Sciences

International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology Pub Date : 2017-05-10 DOI:10.1504/IJARGE.2017.084031

Rico Hübner, Jie Lu, M. Wiesmeier

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引用次数: 1

摘要

概述了农业生产系统中风险的定义，并概述了农业中不同风险来源。针对与土壤相关的风险，详细分析了影响因素。据此，开发了一种简单的概率建模方法，用于评估不同耕作制度和土壤保持做法在环境和经济方面的影响。选定的不确定性因素，如降雨量和作物产量，使用@RISK程序进行模拟。使用这种方法，可以模拟和比较在给定环境条件下各种作物和管理实践组合未来可能的表现，不仅考虑到土壤侵蚀控制，还考虑到增加农民收入。

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Risk assessment within agricultural production: soil conservation strategies and its environmental and economic aspects - a case study for Bavaria

The definition of risk within agricultural production systems is summarised and an overview of different sources of risks in agriculture is provided. Focusing on risks associated with the soil, the influencing factors are analysed in detail. From this, a simple methodology for a probabilistic modelling approach to evaluate the effect of the different cropping tillage system and soil conservation practices is developed concerning environmental as well as economic aspects. Selected uncertainty factors, such as rainfall and crop yields are simulated using the program @RISK. With this method, the possible future performance of various combinations of crop and management practice under given environmental conditions can be simulated and compared, considering not only soil erosion control but also increasing farmers' income.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance and Ecology Agricultural and Biological Sciences-Agronomy and Crop Science

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： IJARGE proposes and fosters discussion on the evolution and governance of agricultural resources, with emphasis on the implications that policy choices have on both the welfare of humans and the ecology of the planet. This perspective acknowledges the complexity of the agricultural sector as an interface between ecological and socio-economic processes operating in parallel over different space-time scales, as well as the reflexive characteristic of human systems.