Using dynamic-locational material flow analysis to model the development of urban stock

ABSTRACT Construction and demolition waste (CDW) constitutes the biggest share of all waste generated. In addition to the environmental advantages, CDW recycling provides also high resource conservation benefits if used as recycled aggregates. Integrated forecasting of demolition and construction activities is crucial for quantifying and reconciling future supply and demand. While spatial characteristics are significant to minimize transportation costs, temporal aspects and material characteristic are important to regard for the development of the urban stock over time. This paper presents a Dynamic-Locational MFA as a model that integrates spatial, temporal and CDW material characteristics into material flow analysis at the demand and supply side. The relevant drivers of construction and demolition activities are defined in order to derive the required equations. Also, the empirical analysis is used to conclude the parameters and demonstrate the model on a real case study. Hence, the synergies between the recycling and construction activities are identified and the supply and demand of materials can be reconciled. The outcomes are not only important in terms of resource efficiency, but also help in anticipating and planning the restructuring of the value chain of the construction sector, such as the locations and capacities of concrete and recycling plants.