量化埃塞俄比亚未来气候对作物需水量、生长期和农业流域干旱的影响

IF 3.5 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Air Soil and Water Research Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1177/11786221221135151

T. Abraham, Alemayehu Muluneh

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引用次数: 1

摘要

量化气候变化对作物生育期、需水量和干旱条件的影响对作物综合生产系统规划至关重要。本研究以埃塞俄比亚哈瓦萨湖流域为研究对象，定量分析了CMIP5气候模式对作物需水量(CWR)、生长期(LGP)和干旱条件的影响。本研究选择了两个区域气候模式，在应用分位数映射偏差校正程序后，在评价标准上表现较好。对两种代表性浓度通路(RCP4.5和rcp8.5)进行影响分析。干旱分析采用降雨标准化异常(s指数)。该地区未来的生长季节预计在4月15日至5月1日之间，全年平均。在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，到2080年代末，所有阶段的作物总需水量预计将从基线值3180.4 mm增加到平均3258.7 mm。干旱预测分析显示，在RCP 8.5条件下，2050年代和2080年代将出现s指数< - 1.6的极端干旱。在所有时间段中，2050年代s指数值为正值的年数最少(30年中有10年)，这表明在RCP 8.5下，这些时间段预计会出现降水短缺。根据这一结果，预计气候变化对该地区作物生产要素的综合影响将很大。研究结果表明，考虑到世界上许多发展中地区的经济和技术发展水平较低，该研究区域应该提前预警。因此，了解气候变量的未来变化及其影响可成为制定更好的适应和缓解措施计划的重要投入。

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Quantifying Impacts of Future Climate on the Crop Water Requirement, Growth Period, and Drought on the Agricultural Watershed, in Ethiopia

Quantifying the influence of climate change on the crop growth period, water requirement, and drought conditions is essential for integrated crop production system planning. In this study, the effects of climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Product (CMIP5) on Crop Water Requirement (CWR), Length of Growth Period (LGP), and drought conditions were quantified for Lake Hawassa watershed in Ethiopia. In this study, two regional climate models were selected that showed better performance on the evaluation criteria after applying a quantile mapping bias correction procedure. The impact analysis was conducted for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5). Drought analysis was performed using the standardized anomalies of rainfall (S-index). The future growing season of the area is projected to be between April 15 and May 1 on average for all years. The total crop water requirement was projected to increase to a value of 3,258.7 mm on average under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for all the stages at the end of 2080s from its baseline value of 3,180.4 mm. In addition, the drought forecast analysis shows extreme drought with S-index values <−1.6 in the 2050s and 2080s under RCP 8.5. Of all the time periods, the 2050s recorded the smallest number of years (10 out of 30 years) with a positive S-index value, indicating projected precipitation shortages during these time periods under RCP 8.5. With this result, the combined impacts of climate change on crop production factors are expected to be high in the region. The results suggest an early warning for the study region considering low economic and technological development as in many developing parts of the world. Therefore, understanding the future changes in climate variables and their impacts can be an important input for developing a better plan for adaptation and mitigation measures.

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来源期刊

Air Soil and Water Research ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

5.30%

发文量

审稿时长

8 weeks

期刊介绍： Air, Soil & Water Research is an open access, peer reviewed international journal covering all areas of research into soil, air and water. The journal looks at each aspect individually, as well as how they interact, with each other and different components of the environment. This includes properties (including physical, chemical, biochemical and biological), analysis, microbiology, chemicals and pollution, consequences for plants and crops, soil hydrology, changes and consequences of change, social issues, and more. The journal welcomes readerships from all fields, but hopes to be particularly profitable to analytical and water chemists and geologists as well as chemical, environmental, petrochemical, water treatment, geophysics and geological engineers. The journal has a multi-disciplinary approach and includes research, results, theory, models, analysis, applications and reviews. Work in lab or field is applicable. Of particular interest are manuscripts relating to environmental concerns. Other possible topics include, but are not limited to: Properties and analysis covering all areas of research into soil, air and water individually as well as how they interact with each other and different components of the environment Soil hydrology and microbiology Changes and consequences of environmental change, chemicals and pollution.