2015年Kuchinoerabujima火山喷发前兆及疏散决策

IF 0.2 Q4 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
M. Iguchi
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引用次数: 3

摘要

2014年8月3日至2015年5月29日,位于日本西南部琉球群岛的Kuchinoerabujima火山Shindake山顶火山口发生喷发。日本气象厅(JMA)在2014年火山爆发后将火山警戒等级(VAL)升级为3级(火山口2公里以内的警戒区),在2015年火山爆发后将火山警戒等级(VAL)升级为5级(疏散)。根据监测数据和历史上火山爆发的受灾地区,研究实施火山爆发早期预警和预测最有可能遭受火山爆发破坏的地区的可能性。在2014年爆发之前,从1999年7月开始,火山活动持续了15年。在火山喷发之前,只观察到短暂的倾斜变化。长期的火山活动表现为:1)地震活动的反复爆发;2)火山口周围的地面暴胀事件与地震活动性的增加有关;3)地热活动增加;4)火山作用的出现。短期过程只包括在2014年火山爆发前一小时火山口侧面的倾斜变化。2015年火山喷发前的现象比2014年火山喷发前更为强烈,地震活动性表明,火山喷发前6天发生了一次有震感的地震;地面变形较大;so2气体排放率较高;温度越高。尽管活动更加激烈,VAL仍保持在3。2015年火山爆发后,警戒级别立即从3级升级为5级,然后所有居民都乘坐渡轮从火山岛撤离。2015年10月,地震活动、二氧化硫气体排放率和地热活动的减少导致警戒区半径最初减小到2.5 km以下。2016年6月,根据峰会区域附近的通货紧缩情况,进一步减少到不到2公里(VAL 3)。有关疏散的问题
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Precursors to the 2015 Eruption of Kuchinoerabujima Volcano and Decision Making on Evacuation
― ― Abstract On August 3, 2014 and May 29, 2015, eruptions occurred at the Shindake summit crater of Kuchinoerabujima volcano in the Ryukyu Islands, southwestern Japan. The Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA ) upgraded the Volcanic Alert Level ( VAL ) to 3 ( warned zone within 2 km from the crater ) after the onset of the 2014 eruption and to 5 ( evacuation ) after the onset of the 2015 eruption. The possibility of implementing early warnings for eruptions and forecasting the area most likely to suffer damage from volcanic eruptions are examined based on monitoring data and disaster-affected areas of historic eruptions. The onset of the 2014 eruption was preceded by a 15-year prolonged increase in volcanic activity that started in July 1999. Only a short-term tilt change was observed immediately before the eruption. The prolonged volcanic activity is charac-terized by: 1 ) repeated bursts of seismicity; 2 ) ground inflation events around the crater associated with increases in seismicity; 3 ) increases in geothermal activity and 4 ) appearance of fuma-role. The short-term process consisted only of a tilt change of crater-side up one hour before the onset of the 2014 eruption. The phenomena prior to the 2015 eruption were more intense than those prior to the 2014 eruption, as demonstrated by seismicity, which included a felt earthquake six days before the eruption; larger ground deformation; higher rate of discharge of SO 2 gas; and, higher temperature. Despite more intense activity, VAL remained at 3. VAL was upgraded from 3 to 5 immediately after the 2015 eruption and then all of the residents were evacuated from the volcanic island by ferry boat. Decreases in seismicity, SO 2 gas discharge rate, and geothermal activity led to an initial reduction of the alert zone radius to less than 2.5 km in October 2015. A further reduction to less than 2 km ( VAL 3 ) was later implemented based on deflation around the summit area in June 2016. Problems related to evacuation
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
33.30%
发文量
28
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