气候和天气对农业的影响：以巴西为例

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Economia Aplicada Pub Date : 2018-11-28 DOI:10.11606/1980-5330/EA119584

Denisard C. O. Alves, P. Pereda

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引用次数: 3

摘要

未来几十年，世界人口将呈指数级增长，增加对粮食的需求，并对农业部门确保粮食安全提出挑战。鉴于气候条件对农业的重要性，本文分析了关于气候对巴西农业市场影响的两种不同假设。首先，农民在决定种植或饲养的作物或动物的类型和数量时，只会观察所在地区的平均气候条件。其次，天气偏离正常气候条件导致农民偏离最佳利润。这两种假设都没有被数据所否定。2006年降雨量异常造成的损失估计为128亿美元（按2014年的数值计算）。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Climate and weather impacts on agriculture: the case of Brazil

The world’s population will rise exponentially in the coming decades, increasing the demand for food and challenging the agricultural sector to ensure food security. Due to the importance of climate conditions for agriculture, this article analyzed two different hypotheses regarding climate impacts on agricultural markets in Brazil. First, farmers only observe the average climate conditions of their region when deciding the type and amount of crop or animal to grow or raise. Second, weather diversions from normal climate conditions cause farmers to deviate from optimal profits. Neither hypothesis was rejected by the data. The 2006 estimated loss from rainfall anomalies was 12.8 billion dollars (in 2014 values).

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来源期刊

Economia Aplicada Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

0.30

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

100 weeks

期刊介绍： The journal Economia Aplicada (Brazilian Journal of Applied Economics) is a quarterly publication of the Dept. of Economics of the Faculty of Economics, Business and Accounting of the University of São Paulo at Ribeirão Preto (FEA-RP/USP). It was first published in 1997 by the Dept. of Economics of FEA-USP and by FIPE, with the primary concern of filling an editorial gap in Brazil. The Journal"s interest is to publish solely scientific papers on applied economics. Nowadays it has the same goal. Its focus is to publish papers with economic analysis applied to specific problems of interest either to public or private sector, especially with quantitative results bringing theory and reality closer.