斯洛伐克对英国CAR出口建模——矢量误差校正方法

IF 0.4 Q4 ECONOMICS
Renáta Pitoňáková
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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要本文的目的是确定从斯洛伐克到英国的道路车辆出口的决定因素。误差修正模型基于2008年1月至2018年11月的月度数据。该模型确定了实际有效汇率、通货膨胀率和工业生产对外国运输设备需求的短期和长期影响。实际有效汇率表明国内生产者对最重要贸易伙伴的竞争力,斯洛伐克的通货膨胀率代表宏观经济环境,英国的工业生产代表收入变量。结果表明,公路车辆出口在长期内受到汇率和工业生产的影响。汇率的升值减少了SR对英国的出口,而收入的增加增加了国外需求。在短期内与机动车辆的交易受到所有三个解释变量的影响。误差修正项表明,上个月大约30%的不平衡将在本月得到修正。这将影响理事机构管理目前主要以机械和运输设备为主的商品框架,并支持旨在创造更多样化出口商品结构的其他行业的公司。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modelling CAR Export from Slovakia to the United Kingdom - Vector Error Correction Approach
Abstract The aim of the article is to identify determinants of export of road vehicles from Slovakia to the United Kingdom. The Error correction model is based on monthly data from January 2008 to November 2018. The modelling identifies short and long-run effects of real effective exchange rate, inflation rate and industrial production on foreign demand of transport equipment. The real effective exchange rate indicates competitiveness of domestic producers towards most important trade partners, inflation rate of Slovakia is a proxy for macroeconomic environment and industrial production of the UK stands in for the income variable. The results suggest that export of road vehicles is in the long-run impacted by exchange rate and industrial production. The appreciation of exchange rate reduces export from SR to the UK while rising income increases foreign demand. In the short-run trading with motor vehicles is impacted by all three explanatory variables. The Error correction term indicates that roughly 30 % of disequilibrium in the previous month will be corrected in the current month. The implications are for governing bodies to manage the current commodity framework which is at present mainly oriented on machinery and transport equipment and to support companies from other industries aiming to create more diversified export commodity structure.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
10
审稿时长
38 weeks
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