基于气候变化的民生可持续发展路径——以云南少数民族地区为例

IF 3.5 3区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management Pub Date : 2023-04-07 DOI:10.1108/ijccsm-01-2023-0003

Jiaxin Wu, Lei Liu, Hongjuan Yang

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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的本研究旨在评估云南少数民族地区气候变化的特点，并确定一条基于气候变化促进可持续生计的有效途径。设计/方法论/方法以云南省为例，在扩展传统可持续生计框架的基础上，从自然、物质、金融、社会、人文和文化六个子系统构建了可持续生计的系统动力学模型，并用沧源县的数据检验了该模型的准确性和有效性。通过调整这些参数，设计了五条发展路径，以模拟生计系统的未来状况，并确定最佳路径。发现气候变化加剧了人们生计的脆弱性。未来，五条发展道路中的每一条都将有利于促进可持续生计。但与路径一（维持现状）相比，路径三（文化优先路径）和路径四（经济发展优先路径）的优势更为明显。路径二（人民生活优先的路径）通过促进人们的内生动力逐渐提高发展速度，路径五（协调发展的路径）由于其更平衡的考虑而优于其他路径。独创性/价值基于少数民族地区特点的可持续生计分析框架得到拓宽。通过构建生计系统的SD模型，克服了传统静态分析的局限性，提出了通过模拟促进可持续生计的发展路径。本研究为气候变化背景下的生计研究提供了理论框架和参考方法，为增强气候适应性和实现可持续生计提供了决策依据。

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Development paths of people’s sustainable livelihood based on climate change: a case study of Yunnan minority areas

Purpose This study aims to evaluate the characteristics of climate change in Yunnan minority areas and identify an effective path to promote sustainable livelihoods based on climate change. Design/methodology/approach Taking Yunnan Province as an example, based on the expansion of the traditional sustainable livelihood framework, the authors constructed a system dynamics (SD) model of sustainable livelihood from the six subsystems of natural, physical, financial, social, human and cultural and tested the accuracy and effectiveness of the model with data from Cangyuan County. By adjusting these parameters, five development paths are designed to simulate the future situation of the livelihood system and determine the optimal path. Findings Climate change has exacerbated the vulnerability of people’s livelihoods. In future, each of the five development paths will be advantageous for promoting sustainable livelihoods. However, compared with Path I (maintaining the status quo), Path III (path of giving priority to culture) and Path IV (path of giving priority to economic development) have more obvious advantages. Path II (path of giving priority to people’s lives) gradually increases the development rate by promoting people’s endogenous motivation, and Path V (path of coordinated development) is better than the other paths because of its more balanced consideration. Originality/value The analytical framework of sustainable livelihoods based on the characteristics of minority areas is broadened. By constructing a SD model of the livelihood system, the limitations of traditional static analysis have been overcome and a development path for promoting sustainable livelihoods through simulation is proposed. This study offers a theoretical framework and reference method for livelihood research against the backdrop of climate change and a decision-making basis for enhancing climate adaptability and realizing sustainable livelihoods.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

8.10

自引率

8.30%

发文量

审稿时长

15 weeks

期刊介绍： Effective from volume 10 (2018), International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an open access journal. In the history of science there have been only a few issues which have mobilized the attention of scientists and policy-makers alike as the issue of climate change currently does. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management is an international forum that addresses the need for disseminating scholarly research, projects and other initiatives aimed to facilitate a better understanding of the subject matter of climate change. The journal publishes papers dealing with policy-making on climate change, and methodological approaches to cope with the problems deriving from climate change. It disseminates experiences from projects and case studies where due consideration to environmental, economic, social and political aspects is given and especially the links and leverages that can be attained by this holistic approach. It regards climate change under the perspective of its wider implications: for economic growth, water and food security, and for people''s survival – especially those living in the poorest communities in developing countries.