Influence of initial ocean conditions on temperature and precipitation in a coupled climate model's solution

Abstract. This paper describes results of an experiment that perturbed the initial conditions for the ocean's temperature field of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a well defined design. The resulting 30-member ensemble of CESM simulations, each of 10 years in length, is used to create an emulator (a nonlinear regression relating the initial conditions to various outcomes) from the simulators. Through the use of the emulator to expand the output distribution space, we estimate the spatial uncertainties at 10 years for surface air temperature, 25 m ocean temperature, precipitation, and rain. Outside the tropics, basin averages for the uncertainty in the ocean temperature field range between 0.48 ∘C (Indian Ocean) and 0.87 ∘C (North Pacific) (2 standard deviation). The tropical Pacific uncertainty is the largest due to different phasings of the ENSO signal. Over land areas, the regional temperature uncertainty varies from 1.03 ∘C (South America) to 10.82 ∘C (Europe) (2 standard deviation). Similarly, the regional average uncertainty in precipitation varies from 0.001 cm day−1 over Antarctica to 0.163 cm day−1 over Australia with a global average of 0.075 cm day−1. In general, both temperature and precipitation uncertainties are larger over land than over the ocean. A maximum covariance analysis is used to examine how ocean temperatures affect both surface air temperatures and precipitation over land. The analysis shows that the tropical Pacific influences the temperature over North America, but the North America surface temperature is also moderated by the state of the North Pacific outside the tropics. It also indicates which regions show a high degree of variance between the simulations in the ensemble and are, therefore, less predictable. The calculated uncertainties are also compared to an estimate of internal variability within CESM. Finally, the importance of feedback processes on the solution of the simulation over the 10 years of the experiment is quantified. These estimates of uncertainty do not take into consideration the anthropogenic effect on warming of the atmosphere and ocean.