新兴经济体对外直接投资的决定因素

Equilibrium Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI:10.24136/EQ.2019.010
A. Cieślik, Giang Hien Tran
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引用次数: 28

摘要

研究背景:在过去的四十年里,新兴市场的跨国公司数量激增,发达经济体和新兴经济体之间的增长前景差距缩小。贸发会议的统计数据显示,自1980年以来,新兴经济体的外国直接投资流量一直保持稳定,2015年占全球外国直接投资存量的五分之一以上。日本在20世纪60年代和70年代开始对外投资时,引领了外国直接投资的反向趋势。20年后,在20世纪80年代至90年代,所谓的亚洲之虎,以及最近东南亚快速工业化的经济体,以及东亚和南亚的中国和印度,继续保持着反向的外国直接投资趋势。本文的主要目的是对新兴经济体外国直接投资外流的决定因素进行实证研究。方法:参考Markusen(2002)提出的知识资本理论模型,推导出可检验的实证假设。该模型使用泊松伪最大似然估计技术进行估计。利用2001-2002年期间38个本国新兴国家和134个东道国的面板数据集,验证了该理论得出的具体研究假设。研究结果与附加值:在本文中,我们区分了外国直接投资的横向和纵向原因。我们的估计结果支持了跨国企业主流理论可以解释新兴经济体FDI流动的假设,暗示了市场总规模、熟练劳动力丰度、投资成本、贸易成本以及两国地理距离的重要作用。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Determinants of outward FDI from emerging economies
Research background: The last four decades have witnessed an upsurge of multi-nationals from emerging markets alongside a narrowed gap in growth prospects between developed and emerging economies. UNCTAD statistics show that FDI flows from emerging economies have gone steady since 1980 and occupied more than one fifth of global FDI stock in 2015. Japan led the reverse FDI trend when it started to invest abroad in the 1960s and 1970s. Two decades later, in the 1980s-1990s, the reverse FDI trend was continued by so-called Asian tigers, then recently by those rapidly-industrializing economies in Southeast Asia as well as China and India in East and South Asia. Purpose of the article: The main goal of this paper is to contribute empirically to the study of the determinants of FDI outflows from emerging economies. Methods: In order to derive empirically testable hypotheses this paper refers to theoretical Knowledge-Capital model developed by Markusen (2002). The model is estimated using the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimation technique. The specific research hypotheses derived from the theory are verified using a panel dataset of 38 home emerging countries and 134 host countries over the period 2001–2012. Findings & Value added: In this paper, we distinguish between horizontal and vertical reasons for FDI. Our estimation results support the hypothesis that main-stream theory of multinational enterprise can explain FDI flows from emerging economies, implying the significant roles of total market size, skilled-labor abundance, investment cost, trade cost as well as geographical distance between two countries.
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