红热蛙:识别最濒临灭绝的澳大利亚蛙类

IF 1.6 Q3 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
H. Geyle, C. Hoskin, D. Bower, Renee A. Catullo, S. Clulow, M. Driessen, Katrina Daniels, S. Garnett, Deon J. Gilbert, Geoffrey W Heard, J. Hero, H. Hines, Emily P. Hoffmann, G. Hollis, D. Hunter, F. Lemckert, M. Mahony, G. Marantelli, K. Mcdonald, N. Mitchell, David A. Newell, J. Roberts, B. Scheele, M. Scroggie, E. Vanderduys, S. Wassens, M. West, J. Woinarski, G. Gillespie
{"title":"红热蛙:识别最濒临灭绝的澳大利亚蛙类","authors":"H. Geyle, C. Hoskin, D. Bower, Renee A. Catullo, S. Clulow, M. Driessen, Katrina Daniels, S. Garnett, Deon J. Gilbert, Geoffrey W Heard, J. Hero, H. Hines, Emily P. Hoffmann, G. Hollis, D. Hunter, F. Lemckert, M. Mahony, G. Marantelli, K. Mcdonald, N. Mitchell, David A. Newell, J. Roberts, B. Scheele, M. Scroggie, E. Vanderduys, S. Wassens, M. West, J. Woinarski, G. Gillespie","doi":"10.1071/pc21019","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia’s frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change.","PeriodicalId":38939,"journal":{"name":"Pacific Conservation Biology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2021-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"11","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction\",\"authors\":\"H. Geyle, C. Hoskin, D. Bower, Renee A. Catullo, S. Clulow, M. Driessen, Katrina Daniels, S. Garnett, Deon J. Gilbert, Geoffrey W Heard, J. Hero, H. Hines, Emily P. Hoffmann, G. Hollis, D. Hunter, F. Lemckert, M. Mahony, G. Marantelli, K. Mcdonald, N. Mitchell, David A. Newell, J. Roberts, B. Scheele, M. Scroggie, E. Vanderduys, S. Wassens, M. West, J. Woinarski, G. Gillespie\",\"doi\":\"10.1071/pc21019\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia’s frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change.\",\"PeriodicalId\":38939,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Pacific Conservation Biology\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-08-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"11\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Pacific Conservation Biology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1071/pc21019\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Pacific Conservation Biology","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1071/pc21019","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 11

摘要

世界上超过三分之一的两栖动物物种被列为濒危或灭绝物种,根据国际自然保护联盟的标准,最近的一项评估将45种澳大利亚青蛙(占目前已知物种的18.4%)列为“濒危”物种。本文采用结构化专家问答法对26种被评估为极度濒危和濒危的蛙类进行了评估,以估计它们到2040年灭绝的概率。我们还调查了参与者的经验(以自我分配的分类分数衡量,即“专家”或“非专家”)是否影响了估计。对参与者意见的整理和分析表明,到2040年,有8个物种处于灭绝的高风险(50%的可能性),其中壶菌病被确定为主要威胁。另有5个物种处于中高风险(30-50%的可能性),主要是由于气候变化。26种青蛙中有14种是昆士兰州特有的,许多种类仅限于容易受到随机事件影响的小地理范围内(例如,严重的热浪或大型森林大火)。专家更有可能认为鲜为人知的物种(专家人数少于10人)的灭绝概率更高,而非专家更有可能认为更知名的物种的灭绝概率更高。然而,在讨论之后,分数趋于一致,表明对灭绝概率的估计有更大的共识。为了避免未来澳大利亚青蛙的灭绝,迫切需要增加资源和管理干预。主要优先事项包括发展和支持圈养管理,建立或扩大原地人口避难所,以减轻疾病和气候变化的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Red hot frogs: identifying the Australian frogs most at risk of extinction
More than a third of the world’s amphibian species are listed as Threatened or Extinct, with a recent assessment identifying 45 Australian frogs (18.4% of the currently recognised species) as ‘Threatened’ based on IUCN criteria. We applied structured expert elicitation to 26 frogs assessed as Critically Endangered and Endangered to estimate their probability of extinction by 2040. We also investigated whether participant experience (measured as a self-assigned categorical score, i.e. ‘expert’ or ‘non-expert’) influenced the estimates. Collation and analysis of participant opinion indicated that eight species are at high risk (>50% chance) of becoming extinct by 2040, with the disease chytridiomycosis identified as the primary threat. A further five species are at moderate–high risk (30–50% chance), primarily due to climate change. Fourteen of the 26 frog species are endemic to Queensland, with many species restricted to small geographic ranges that are susceptible to stochastic events (e.g. a severe heatwave or a large bushfire). Experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for poorly known species (those with <10 experts), while non-experts were more likely to rate extinction probability higher for better-known species. However, scores converged following discussion, indicating that there was greater consensus in the estimates of extinction probability. Increased resourcing and management intervention are urgently needed to avert future extinctions of Australia’s frogs. Key priorities include developing and supporting captive management and establishing or extending in-situ population refuges to alleviate the impacts of disease and climate change.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Pacific Conservation Biology
Pacific Conservation Biology Environmental Science-Nature and Landscape Conservation
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
6.70%
发文量
32
期刊介绍: Pacific Conservation Biology provides an important discussion forum for regional conservation issues, debate about management priorities, and dissemination of research results. The journal publishes original research, reviews, perspectives and book reviews.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信