Covid-19在印度尼西亚和沙特阿拉伯的传播分析

Q2 Mathematics

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-05 DOI:10.5614/CBMS.2020.3.1.3

M. Z. Ndii, P. Hadisoemarto, D. Agustian, Asep K. Supriatna

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引用次数: 26

摘要

新型冠状病毒疫情已经在200多个国家爆发，震惊了社会。在等待疫苗和药物干预的同时，已经实施了若干措施来减缓流行病。使用确定性和随机模型，我们评估了当前策略的有效性:降低传播率和加快检测受感染个体的时间。确定了繁殖比率和灭绝概率。我们发现这两种策略的结合对减缓流行病是有效的。我们还发现，在不降低传播率的情况下，加快发现感染者的时间不足以减缓疫情。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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An Analysis of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia and Saudi Arabia

An outbreak of novel coronavirus has been happening in more than 200 countries and has shocked society. Several measures have been implemented to slowing down the epidemics while waiting for vaccine and pharmaceutical intervention. Using a deterministic and stochastic model, we assess the effectiveness of current strategies: reducing the transmission rate and speeding up the time to detect infected individuals. The reproductive ratio and the probability of extinction are determined. We found that the combination of both strategies is effective to slow down the epidemics. We also find that speeding up the time to detect infected individuals without reducing the transmission rate is not sufficient to slow down the epidemics.

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来源期刊

Communication in Biomathematical Sciences Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology-Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

24 weeks