模拟和预测意大利的温度和降水

IF 0.6 Q3 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Atti Accademia Peloritana dei Pericolanti-Classe di Scienze Fisiche Matematiche e Naturali Pub Date : 2019-07-06 DOI:10.1478/AAPP.972A2

M. Lefebvre

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了1991-2015年意大利的月平均气温。平均温度相对于前一年的增减被建模为具有四种可能状态的离散时间马尔可夫链。同样，提出了一个马尔可夫链作为月降水量变化的模型。根据这些模式，可以预测温度和降水量在长期内是否可能有显著变化。

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Modelling and forecasting temperature and precipitation in Italy

We study the monthly average temperature in Italy for the period 1991-2015. The increase or decrease of the average temperature with respect to the previous year is modelled as a discrete-time Markov chain having four possible states. Similarly, a Markov chain is proposed as a model for the variations of the monthly amount of precipitation. Based on these models, it is possible to forecast whether the temperature and the amount of precipitation are likely to vary significantly in the long term.

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来源期刊

Atti Accademia Peloritana dei Pericolanti-Classe di Scienze Fisiche Matematiche e Naturali MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

31 weeks

期刊介绍： This journal is of a multi- and inter-disciplinary nature and covers a broad range of fields including mathematics, computer science, physics, chemistry, biology, earth sciences, and their intersection. History of science is also included within the topics addressed by the journal. The transactions of the Pelorian Academy started out as periodic news sheets containing the notes presented by the members of the Divisions into which the Academy has been and still is organized, according to subject areas. The publication of these notes for the Division (“Classe”) of Mathematical, Physical and Natural Sciences is the responsibility of the Editorial Committee, which is composed of the Director of the division with the role of Chairman, the Vice-Director, the Secretary and two or more other members. Besides original research articles, the journal also accepts texts from conferences and invited talks held in the Academy. These contributions are published in a different section of the journal. In addition to the regular issues, single monographic supplements are occasionally published which assemble reports and communications presented at congresses, symposia, seminars, study meetings and other scientific events organized by the Academy or under its patronage. Since 2004 these transactions have been published online in the form of an open access electronic journal.