A game theory model of terrorist mobilization: the effects of repressive and accommodative counterterrorism and club goods on terrorist decision making

ABSTRACT This study proposes a new theoretical model of the decision-making process that mobilizes individuals to engage in terrorism. The model accounts for the effects of a state’s ability to retain power, a state’s various counterterrorism strategies, and the club goods provided by terrorist organizations. The comparative statics demonstrate that a state’s ability to retain power and a policy of counterterrorism that employs exclusive accommodation prevents terrorist mobilization, while the club goods provided by terrorist organizations have the reverse effect. In addition, repressive counterterrorism backfires if its direct effect is less than its provocative effect. The model contributes to the current knowledge base of theoretical understanding of terrorism by considering bipartite effect of repressive policies, and exclusiveness of accommodative counterterrorism policies.