Recent changes in the reproductive success of farmland birds: conservation and management implications. The declining grey partridge Perdix perdix as a case study

Several ground-nesting bird species living in European farmlands are experiencing a persistent decline. Poorer reproductive success is suspected to be the main demographic driver. We developed a model to quantify to what extent such recent change may impact the viability of their populations. We took the grey partridge Perdix perdix, a typical farmland species, as a well-documented case study, but the model can be adapted to other species. We built a model based on our in-depth demographic knowledge of this species and the large database compiled from our long-term population monitoring programme. We took into account environmental and demographic stochasticity as well as density-dependence processes. We investigated the impact of recent changes in reproductive success on the viability of (unharvested) populations. For this purpose, we considered two periods: 1979–2004 as ‘Past’ and 2005–2014 as ‘Present’ (we used data of subsequent years to test the model’s goodness of fit). During the ‘Past’ period, the simulated population was increasing with a mean stochastic growth rate λmean = 1.01 (25% of decreasing trajectories), whereas λmean = 0.89 during the ‘Present’ period (74% of decreasing trajectories). We provide detailed results and discuss the possible environmental causes, with a focus on extreme weather events. In a further step, we used our model as a tool to investigate the impact of four hunting bag management strategies on exploited populations. The hunting bag was assumed to be an additive cause of mortality. Hunting leads to a decrease in λmean but the amplitude (from minor to substantial) depends upon the strategy and the setting-up of parameters. We deliver our model as a tool to support decision-making for sustainable population management and provide the script (ULM software) as Supplementary information.