{"title":"预测光谱负lsamvy过程的指数时间之前的最后一个零","authors":"E. Baurdoux, J. M. Pedraza","doi":"10.1017/apr.2022.47","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Given a spectrally negative Lévy process, we predict, in an \n$L_1$\n sense, the last passage time of the process below zero before an independent exponential time. This optimal prediction problem generalises [2], where the infinite-horizon problem is solved. Using a similar argument as that in [24], we show that this optimal prediction problem is equivalent to solving an optimal prediction problem in a finite-horizon setting. Surprisingly (unlike the infinite-horizon problem), an optimal stopping time is based on a curve that is killed at the moment the mean of the exponential time is reached. That is, an optimal stopping time is the first time the process crosses above a non-negative, continuous, and non-increasing curve depending on time. This curve and the value function are characterised as a solution of a system of nonlinear integral equations which can be understood as a generalisation of the free boundary equations (see e.g. [21, Chapter IV.14.1]) in the presence of jumps. As an example, we numerically calculate this curve in the Brownian motion case and for a compound Poisson process with exponential-sized jumps perturbed by a Brownian motion.","PeriodicalId":53160,"journal":{"name":"Advances in Applied Probability","volume":"55 1","pages":"611 - 642"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2021-08-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Predicting the last zero before an exponential time of a spectrally negative Lévy process\",\"authors\":\"E. Baurdoux, J. M. Pedraza\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/apr.2022.47\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Abstract Given a spectrally negative Lévy process, we predict, in an \\n$L_1$\\n sense, the last passage time of the process below zero before an independent exponential time. This optimal prediction problem generalises [2], where the infinite-horizon problem is solved. Using a similar argument as that in [24], we show that this optimal prediction problem is equivalent to solving an optimal prediction problem in a finite-horizon setting. Surprisingly (unlike the infinite-horizon problem), an optimal stopping time is based on a curve that is killed at the moment the mean of the exponential time is reached. That is, an optimal stopping time is the first time the process crosses above a non-negative, continuous, and non-increasing curve depending on time. This curve and the value function are characterised as a solution of a system of nonlinear integral equations which can be understood as a generalisation of the free boundary equations (see e.g. [21, Chapter IV.14.1]) in the presence of jumps. As an example, we numerically calculate this curve in the Brownian motion case and for a compound Poisson process with exponential-sized jumps perturbed by a Brownian motion.\",\"PeriodicalId\":53160,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Advances in Applied Probability\",\"volume\":\"55 1\",\"pages\":\"611 - 642\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-08-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Advances in Applied Probability\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2022.47\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Advances in Applied Probability","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/apr.2022.47","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Predicting the last zero before an exponential time of a spectrally negative Lévy process
Abstract Given a spectrally negative Lévy process, we predict, in an
$L_1$
sense, the last passage time of the process below zero before an independent exponential time. This optimal prediction problem generalises [2], where the infinite-horizon problem is solved. Using a similar argument as that in [24], we show that this optimal prediction problem is equivalent to solving an optimal prediction problem in a finite-horizon setting. Surprisingly (unlike the infinite-horizon problem), an optimal stopping time is based on a curve that is killed at the moment the mean of the exponential time is reached. That is, an optimal stopping time is the first time the process crosses above a non-negative, continuous, and non-increasing curve depending on time. This curve and the value function are characterised as a solution of a system of nonlinear integral equations which can be understood as a generalisation of the free boundary equations (see e.g. [21, Chapter IV.14.1]) in the presence of jumps. As an example, we numerically calculate this curve in the Brownian motion case and for a compound Poisson process with exponential-sized jumps perturbed by a Brownian motion.
期刊介绍:
The Advances in Applied Probability has been published by the Applied Probability Trust for over four decades, and is a companion publication to the Journal of Applied Probability. It contains mathematical and scientific papers of interest to applied probabilists, with emphasis on applications in a broad spectrum of disciplines, including the biosciences, operations research, telecommunications, computer science, engineering, epidemiology, financial mathematics, the physical and social sciences, and any field where stochastic modeling is used.
A submission to Applied Probability represents a submission that may, at the Editor-in-Chief’s discretion, appear in either the Journal of Applied Probability or the Advances in Applied Probability. Typically, shorter papers appear in the Journal, with longer contributions appearing in the Advances.