为规划目的改善澳大利亚的洪水记录——我们能做得更好吗?

IF 2.4 Q2 WATER RESOURCES
K. Allen, P. Hope, D. Lam, J. Brown, R. Wasson
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引用次数: 5

摘要

摘要极端降雨量预计将随着气候变化而增加,但气候变化对洪水的影响尚不确定。基于短期时间序列(通常为30-80年)中可用信息的基础设施设计可能没有考虑到可能发生的洪水事件的全部范围,或者不适合识别非平稳性。从各种自然档案和文献资料中提取的澳大利亚古洪水和古水文气候记录表明,澳大利亚过去曾遭受过更大的洪水事件;18世纪澳大利亚东部的一个多雨时期尤其值得注意。如果目前的基础设施不足以应对过去的洪水,那么就不太可能充分缓解未来的洪水。我们讨论了提高对古洪水记录的认识,并将其纳入风险评估,如何有助于指导基础设施规划和设计、洪水事件预测,并为防洪政策提供信息。这对澳大利亚来说尤其重要,因为它的水文气候变化臭名昭著。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Improving Australia’s flood record for planning purposes – can we do better?
ABSTRACT Extreme rainfall is projected to increase with climate change, but the impact of climate change on floods is uncertain. Infrastructure design based on information available from short gauged time series (typically ~30 – 80 years) may not take account of the full range of possible flood events, or be suitable for identifying non-stationarity. Australian palaeoflood and palaeo-hydroclimate records drawn from a wide variety of natural archives and documentary sources suggest that Australia has been subjected to larger flood events in the past; a pluvial period for eastern Australia in the eighteenth Century is particularly note-worthy. If the current infrastructure is inadequate for past floods, it is unlikely it will adequately mitigate future floods. We discuss how improved awareness, and incorporation, of palaeoflood records in risk estimates could help guide infrastructure planning and design, flood event prediction and inform flood mitigation policy. This is particularly relevant for Australia with its notoriously variable hydroclimate.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
21.90%
发文量
25
期刊介绍: The Australasian Journal of Water Resources ( AJWR) is a multi-disciplinary regional journal dedicated to scholarship, professional practice and discussion on water resources planning, management and policy. Its primary geographic focus is on Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific Islands. Papers from outside this region will also be welcomed if they contribute to an understanding of water resources issues in the region. Such contributions could be due to innovations applicable to the Australasian water community, or where clear linkages between studies in other parts of the world are linked to important issues or water planning, management, development and policy challenges in Australasia. These could include papers on global issues where Australasian impacts are clearly identified.
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