Modeling Shifts in Community Corrections Populations following COVID-19: Evidence from a Midwest Metropolitan Area

ABSTRACT The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in short-term strategy shifts by criminal justice agencies, including population reductions and early release in institutional settings and restricting in-person check-ins in community corrections, among many others. Years into the pandemic, the impact of how local criminal justice agencies navigated these changes in practice is still coming into focus. This paper models shifts in community corrections populations in a Midwest US metropolitan community corrections agency following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using monthly population data from early 2017 to mid-2022, we employ Bayesian interrupted time-series models to describe changes in probation, parole, and supervision absconder populations over this period. The results suggest that both probation and parole populations, as well as absconders, were in decline leading up to March 2020, but then exhibited varying trends following the pandemic. Probation populations decreased markedly, while parole absconding increased.