Fear and the COVID-19 rally round the flag: a panel study on political trust

Abstract The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic boosted political trust in many countries. This article tests the relevance of fear of infection as the micro-level mechanism behind this rally round the flag. This study employs three-wave panel data in the Netherlands, collected days before the first lockdown (early March 2020), during that lockdown (April/May 2020), and after that lockdown (October 2020). Growth curve models isolate the rally effect and its determinants. The article reaches three main conclusions. First, fear of infection is a constituting element of the rally effect: the rise in political trust is more pronounced among people who fear infection. Second, the rise occurs in response to the direct, external threat (health concerns), not in response to the secondary threats (social isolation, economic stagnation). Third, adherents of the radical right are particularly sensitive to the external threat, but only in the short run.