基于马尔可夫模型方法的航海安全评价

IF 0.5 Q4 TRANSPORTATION
O. Melnyk, S. Onyshchenko
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引用次数: 2

摘要

对运输部门目前运行的复杂技术系统进行安全分析是全球海运业面临的一项紧迫挑战,因为缺乏关于风险水平及其错误评估后果的信息。船舶管理和运营的要求包括拥有高度专业的船员和最新的导航设备的重要性。航行安全是海船“安全”概念的组成部分之一。整体安全评估是基于对单个安全组件的评估。在这项研究中,重点是“航行安全”,它主要被理解为确保船舶在特定航行条件下的安全操作,确保船舶的安全控制和操纵,船舶位置监测,航向控制,航线龙骨下有足够的深度裕度,考虑到其在浅水中的实际吃水和下沉,以及海洋扰动。在所提供的研究中,在识别航行安全状态的基础上,利用船舶航行安全变化的齐次马尔可夫模型,形成了具有离散时间和吸收状态的一般形式的过程图形模型和转移概率矩阵。当建立可能的航行安全状态时,所提出的马尔可夫过程模型可用于评估船舶航行安全,具有很大的概率,以评估船舶安全并做出确保船舶安全运行的决策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Navigational safety assessment based on Markov-Model approach
Safety analysis of complex technical systems currently operating in the transport sector is an urgent challenge for the global maritime industry, which suffers from a lack of information about the levels of risk and the consequences of their incorrect assessment. Among the requirements for vessel management and operations the importance of having a highly professional crew and up-to-date navigational equipment. Navigational safety is one of the components of the integral concept of “safety” for a seagoing ship. Assessment of integral safety is based on assessments of the individual safety components. In this study, the focus is on “navigational safety”, which is primarily understood as ensuring safe operation of a vessel in specific navigation conditions, ensuring safe control and maneuvering of the vessel, ship position monitoring, heading control, sufficient depth margin under the keel along the route, taking into account its actual draft and subsidence in shallow water, and sea disturbance. In the offered research on the basis of the identified states of navigational safety, the graphic model of process and matrix of transition probabilities in the general form with use of homogeneous Markov model of change of navigational safety of a vessel, with discrete time and presence of absorbing state is formed. The proposed Markov process model can be used to assess vessel navigational safety when establishing possible states of navigational safety with significant probability to assess ship safety and make decisions to ensure safe vessel operation.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
19
审稿时长
8 weeks
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