世界人口分布和全球连通性即将发生的变化：对全球前景的影响

Q3 Business, Management and Accounting

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy Pub Date : 2018-12-19 DOI:10.1504/IJFIP.2018.10018065

J. Zinkina, S. Shulgin, A. Andreev, I. Aleshkovski, Andrey Korotayev

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引用次数: 1

摘要

对于第一世界的公民来说，全球化似乎是一种无处不在的现象。我们的研究表明，不同国家的全球连通率以及相应的人口差异很大。50年后，这张照片会是什么样子？我们将人口预测与我们对各国全球连通率最近动态的了解相结合，以估计预计生活在全球连通率不同的国家的世界人口比例。我们表明，在未来几十年里，世界人口在全球连通率不同的国家之间的分布必然会发生重大变化，在提供全球远见的各种尝试中都应该考虑到这一点。

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Forthcoming changes in world population distribution and global connectivity: implications for global foresight

For the first-world citizens, globalisation seems to be an all-pervasive phenomenon. Our research reveals that global connectivity rates differ dramatically for various countries and correspondingly, their populations. What will this picture look like in, say, 50 years? We combine demographic projections with our knowledge on the recent dynamics of national rates of global connectivity to estimate the proportion of world population which is expected to live in countries with varying rates of global connectivity. We show that the distribution of world population among the states with various rates of global connectivity is bound to experience significant changes in the coming decades, which should be taken into account at various attempts of providing global foresight.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy Business, Management and Accounting-Management of Technology and Innovation

CiteScore

2.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The IJFIP has been established as a peer reviewed, international authoritative reference in the field. It publishes high calibre academic articles dealing with knowledge creation, diffusion and utilisation in innovation policy. The journal thus covers all types of Strategic Intelligence (SI). SI is defined as the set of actions that search, process, diffuse and protect information in order to make it available to the right person at the right time in order to make the right decision. Examples of SI in the domain of innovation include Foresight, Forecasting, Delphi studies, Technology Assessment, Benchmarking, R&D evaluation and Technology Roadmapping.