A Time of Reckoning in Emerging Markets

“Emerging markets” has been a positive label for selected markets in developing countries since the mid-1980s. This is a good time to review the progress of those countries and others to see which have succeeded and which have not. Despite the well-known success of China, many countries have failed to measure up to their early promise. This article examines the relative gains and losses of each country versus the developed world’s average GDP per capita from 1991 to 2026 (based on IMF estimates). Brazil and Mexico, for example, have lost ground during that period. Because of those findings, this is a good time to consider changing the “emerging” label and possibly creating a new framework for grouping markets. The IMF list of advanced economies is considered as one possibility. It is important to stimulate discussion of the appropriate categories for investors in creating their opportunity sets for investing and making asset allocation decisions in the years to come.