改进火-气候关系方法论:南加州

IF 3 3区 农林科学 Q2 ECOLOGY
Benjamin Bleiman, T. Rolinski, E. Hoffman, E. Kelsey, David Bangor
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引用次数: 0

摘要

以前,大气变率对区域野火活动影响的描述工作因随机发生的点火和大型火灾事件而变得复杂,特别是在南加州,那里的火灾状态受到广泛的人为调节。野火活动的传统度量固有地包含这种随机性,可能削弱区域火-气候关系。为了解决这一复杂问题,我们首先开发了一种量化区域野火活动的新方法,旨在通过将火灾活动的四个指标汇总为1992-2018年27年期间的年度指数值,即年度火灾严重性指数(AFSI),更清楚地捕捉大气火情成分。然后,我们使用奇异谱分析(SSA)将AFSI分解为趋势分量和振荡分量,并将每个分量与一组已知的调节南加州宏观火灾活动的五个气候预测因子联系起来。这些包括大西洋多年代际涛动(AMO)、太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)、厄尔尼诺Niño-Southern涛动(ENSO)和圣安娜风(SAW)事件,以及海层频率。结果表明,SSA有效地隔离了每个预测因子对AFSI的个体影响,该影响由一般温和的火-气候相关性(|r|>0.4)在整个研究期间量化,以及|r|>0.5在选定的13 - 15年期间量化。每一对振荡型pc -预测因子对的火-气候关系在弱与强之间的过渡集中在2000年代中期,这表明此时火-气候变率发生了重大转变。我们汇总和分解火灾活动指数的方法产生了一种直接的方法,以确定气候预测因子对宏观火灾活动的个别影响,即使在严重受人为影响的火灾制度中也是如此。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Refining Fire–Climate Relationship Methodologies: Southern California
Efforts to delineate the influence of atmospheric variability on regional wildfire activity have previously been complicated by the stochastic occurrence of ignition and large fire events, particularly for Southern California, where anthropogenic modulation of the fire regime is extensive. Traditional metrics of wildfire activity inherently contain this stochasticity, likely weakening regional fire–climate relationships. To resolve this complication, we first develop a new method of quantifying regional wildfire activity that aims to more clearly capture the atmospheric fire regime component by aggregating four metrics of fire activity into an annual index value, the Annual Fire Severity Index (AFSI), for the 27-year period of 1992–2018. We then decompose the AFSI into trend and oscillatory components using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and relate each component to a set of five climate predictors known to modulate macroscale fire activity in Southern California. These include the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and Santa Ana wind (SAW) events, and marine layer frequency. The results indicate that SSA effectively isolates the individual influence of each predictor on AFSI quantified by generally moderate fire–climate correlations, |r|>0.4, over the full study period, and |r|>0.5 over select 13–15-year periods. A transition between weaker and stronger fire–climate relationships for each of the oscillatory PC–predictor pairs is centered around the mid-2000s, suggesting a significant shift in fire–climate variability at this time. Our approach of aggregating and decomposing a fire activity index yields a straightforward methodology to identify the individual influence of climatic predictors on macroscale fire activity even in fire regimes heavily modified by anthropogenic influence.
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来源期刊
Fire-Switzerland
Fire-Switzerland Multiple-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
15.60%
发文量
182
审稿时长
11 weeks
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