Identifying a “Miscarriage of Justice”: Factors Influencing a Successful Appeal Against a Guilty Plea Conviction in Australia

While the difficulties in appealing a guilty plea conviction are widely acknowledged, little research has investigated how appellate courts handle guilty plea convictions. This study addresses this gap by examining Australian appellate court judgments in which a guilty plea conviction was contested, comparing successful appeals where a guilty plea conviction was overturned (n = 193) against unsuccessful appeals where a guilty plea conviction remained (n = 375). Hierarchical multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that, independent of other case characteristics, legal representation on appeal and support from legal actors significantly predicted a successful appeal, while significant predictors of an unsuccessful appeal included male defendants, defendants who received a term of imprisonment, and those who argued they were pressured to plead guilty. The findings highlight the significant influence of legal and extra-legal factors on appellate decision-making beyond the grounds of appeal raised by the defendant, raising important policy implications for the post-conviction process.