{"title":"违约概率的宏观金融决定因素:以印尼银行为例","authors":"Maulana Harris Muhajir, Pierre Six, Jung-Hyun Ahn","doi":"10.21098/bemp.v25i4.1748","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the default probability of Indonesian banks using the copula approach and analyze the macro-financial factors that drive them. We use quarterly data comprised of 80 banks from 2005 to 2019. We find empirical evidence that Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) ratio, inefficiency ratio, and deposit ratio have negativelyimpacted the bank’s default probability. We also find that macroeconomic variables such as policy rate, real exchange, economic growth, and unemployment reduce the default probability. Our study suggests that regulators should focus on capital and deposit management policies to reduce bank risk-taking behaviour. Additionally, the policy rate effectively anticipated the banks’ default risk.","PeriodicalId":36737,"journal":{"name":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"MACRO-FINANCIAL DETERMINANTS OF DEFAULT PROBABILITY USING COPULA: A CASE STUDY OF INDONESIAN BANKS\",\"authors\":\"Maulana Harris Muhajir, Pierre Six, Jung-Hyun Ahn\",\"doi\":\"10.21098/bemp.v25i4.1748\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"We investigate the default probability of Indonesian banks using the copula approach and analyze the macro-financial factors that drive them. We use quarterly data comprised of 80 banks from 2005 to 2019. We find empirical evidence that Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) ratio, inefficiency ratio, and deposit ratio have negativelyimpacted the bank’s default probability. We also find that macroeconomic variables such as policy rate, real exchange, economic growth, and unemployment reduce the default probability. Our study suggests that regulators should focus on capital and deposit management policies to reduce bank risk-taking behaviour. Additionally, the policy rate effectively anticipated the banks’ default risk.\",\"PeriodicalId\":36737,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-01-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i4.1748\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Economics, Econometrics and Finance\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v25i4.1748","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
MACRO-FINANCIAL DETERMINANTS OF DEFAULT PROBABILITY USING COPULA: A CASE STUDY OF INDONESIAN BANKS
We investigate the default probability of Indonesian banks using the copula approach and analyze the macro-financial factors that drive them. We use quarterly data comprised of 80 banks from 2005 to 2019. We find empirical evidence that Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) ratio, inefficiency ratio, and deposit ratio have negativelyimpacted the bank’s default probability. We also find that macroeconomic variables such as policy rate, real exchange, economic growth, and unemployment reduce the default probability. Our study suggests that regulators should focus on capital and deposit management policies to reduce bank risk-taking behaviour. Additionally, the policy rate effectively anticipated the banks’ default risk.