The drought‒dieback‒death conundrum in trees and forests

ABSTRACT Background: Climate warming is amplifying and exacerbating drought stress worldwide. Long-term trends of increasing evaporative demand and decreasing soil moisture availability occur superimposed on severe spells of drought. These rare, extreme droughts have triggered episodes of forest dieback that have led to reduced productivity and rising mortality rates, usually at small scales (dieback hotspots), but affecting biomes worldwide. Aims: This review summarizes and discusses the drivers, patterns and mechanisms of forest dieback caused by drought. Methods: I review studies on forest dieback and tree death linked to dry spells with a focus on tools to forecast dieback. Results: Several mechanisms have been described as physiological drivers of dieback, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, however hydraulics-based models have shown little predictive power of dieback and mortality. Field proxies of tree vigour, including changes in canopy defoliation and water content, combined with surrogates of tree functioning (tree-ring growth, wood anatomy, tree-ring δ13C or δ18O composition) may improve predictions of forest dieback or at least render early-warning signals of impending tree death. Conclusions: Drought-induced dieback and mortality are concerning phenomena which lack forecasting tools with sufficient predictive power. Surrogates of tree vigour, growth and functioning should be used to build more accurate models of tree death in response to extreme climate events linked to drought. Here, I argue for combining and comparing those surrogates to better forecast forest dieback.