The Three Links policy and stock returns

Abstract This study examines whether the Three Links (3L) policy affected stock returns before, during and after the 2008 Taiwan leadership election. The evidence shows that companies in the industries benefitting from (being damaged by) the 3L policy earned positive (negative) cumulative abnormal returns. Although the political party connection/affiliation seems to have had an impact as well, it was not persistent. When both factors – the policy effect and the political connection effect – are considered together, we find that the policy effect persisted during the election, while the political connection effect did not. It is obvious that the policy effect is a powerful factor explaining changes of stock returns during the 2008 leadership election in China’s Taiwan.