成为异类:公司不繁荣的标志?

Equilibrium Pub Date : 2019-06-30 DOI:10.24136/EQ.2019.017
Lucia Švábová, M. Durica
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引用次数: 16

摘要

研究背景:财务困境或即将破产是每个公司的管理层都想避免的非常困难的情况。由于这些原因,对公司破产或财务困境的预测最近成为世界许多国家经济学家和科学家关注的焦点。文章的目的:各种财务指标,主要是财务比率,通常用于预测财务困境。为了创建一个强大的预测模型和具有统计意义的破产预测,建议对数据进行深入的统计分析。在本文中,我们分析了斯洛伐克公司2017年的实际财务比率。在为进一步分析准备数据的阶段,我们检查了异常值的存在,发现有些公司是多元异常值,因为它们与数据库中的其他公司明显不同。因此,我们深入关注了这些外围公司,并分析了成为异类是否是财务困境的迹象。方法:我们分析了异常公司中是否有更多的非繁荣公司,以及它们的财务指标是否与繁荣公司的财务指标有显著差异。在这些分析中,我们使用了统计假设的检验,如均方检验和卡方检验。调查结果和附加值:非繁荣公司在异常值之间的比率显著高于50%,非繁荣和成为异常值的属性是依赖的。在异常值中,繁荣公司和非繁荣公司几乎所有财务比率的均值都有显著差异。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Being an outlier: a company non-prosperity sign?
Research background: The state of financial distress or imminent bankruptcy are very difficult situations that the management of every company wants to avoid. For these reasons, prediction of company bankruptcy or financial distress has been recently in a focus of economists and scientists in many countries over the world. Purpose of the article: Various financial indicators, mostly financial ratios, are usually used to predict the financial distress. In order to create a strong prediction model and a statistically significant prediction of bankruptcy, it is advisable to use a deep statistical analysis of the data. In this paper, we analysed the real financial ratios of Slovak companies from the year 2017. In the phase of data preparation for further analysis, we checked the existence of outliers and found that there are some companies that are multivariate outliers because are significantly different from other companies in the database. Thus, we deeply focused on these outlying companies and analysed whether to be an outlier is a sign of financial distress. Methods: We analysed whether there are much more non-prosperous companies in the set of outlier companies and if their financial indicators are significantly different from those of the prosperous companies. For these analyses, we used testing of the statistical hypotheses, such as the test for equality of means and chi-square test. Findings & Value added: The ratio of non-prosperous companies between the outliers is significantly higher than 50 % and the attributes of non-prosperity and being an outlier are dependent. The means of almost all financial ratios of prosperous and non-prosperous companies among outliers are significantly different.
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