基于俄罗斯金融统计的资金成本和贴现率评价

D. Voronov, L. Ramenskaya
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引用次数: 0

摘要

资金成本及其计算的贴现率是投资项目经济效益财务建模和评价的关键参数。因此,对其进行评价的方法一直是全球经济学家和金融家所关心的问题。在前所未有的制裁压力下,这个问题对俄罗斯投资者来说具有特殊意义,对他们来说,以“不友好”货币计价的资产已不再是无风险的。该研究旨在开发一种算法,用于评估资金成本,并根据以卢布计价的无风险资产和俄罗斯金融统计数据计算贴现率。本研究的方法论基础是公司财务理论和投资项目设计理论,以及投资组合理论。采用资本资产定价模型(CAPM)和加权平均资本成本(WACC),采用一般科学(系统分析和综合)和计量经济学方法对2003-2022年俄罗斯股票市场的统计数据进行了研究。本文提出并检验了一种逐步收集和处理俄罗斯金融统计数据的算法,以计算资金成本和风险溢价。研究结果证明,非系统性风险应单独评估,而不是在加权平均资本成本中评估,并提出了一种确定的机制。开发的方法可以避免在使用外国资料来源期间产生的过高的资本成本值。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Evaluation of the cost of capital and the discount rate based on the Russian financial statistics
The cost of capital and the discount rate calculated on its basis are the key parameters in the financial modelling and assessment of investment projects’ economic efficiency. Therefore, the method for their evaluation is always a relevant issue for economists and financiers all over the globe. In conditions of unprecedent sanctions pressure this problem has gained special significance for Russian investors, for whom the assets denominated in ‘unfriendly’ currencies have ceased to be risk-free. The study aims to develop an algorithm for evaluating the cost of capital and calculating the discount rate based on ruble-denominated risk-free assets and Russian financial statistics. The methodological basis of the research is the theories of corporate finance and investment project design, as well as the portfolio theory. The statistics of the Russian stock market for 2003–2022 are studied using general scientific (systems analysis and synthesis) and econometric methods, as well as by adopting the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The paper suggests and tests a step-by-step algorithm for collecting and processing the Russian financial statistics to calculate the cost of capital and risk premiums to it. The findings prove that unsystematic risks should be assessed separately, rather than within the weighted average cost of capital, as well as propose a determined mechanism for this. The developed method allows avoiding the prohibitively high values of the cost of capital that arise during the use of foreign sources of information.
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