Cross‐border migration on a warming planet: A policy framework

Migration is frequently driven by the need to improve social and economic opportunities or to flee conditions of political insecurity. The increased risks of environmental hazards, including climate change, have intensified the push to migrate. Nevertheless, the relation between climate change and forced displacement is not direct and is complicated by globalization, local ecological conditions, and deteriorating domestic institutions. Significantly, the muddy situation means the question “did this person migrate because of climate change?” may never be fully answered. On the basis of ethical arguments, in this Perspective article we propose a framework with both strong and mild responses to address cross‐border migration. The strong version acknowledges that it is impossible to separate out fully the climate‐induced causes of migration from others and using climate attribution studies for this purpose is potentially harmful. This implies designing an open door policy for asylum seekers as the impacts of climate change unfold, bearing in mind that host countries having the most responsibility for climate change ought to be the most welcoming to them. In the mild version, the international community designates vulnerable zones, areas where significant land area is susceptible to overwhelming loss and damage. Such countries would include most small‐island states, those that are severely drought‐prone and those with substantial low‐lying deltaic areas. In both the mild and strong versions, asylum seekers are provided rights of free passage to host countries under nonrefoulement, so that they are not forced to return to their unliveable or unviable home countries and face continuing harm.