英国脱欧后退出:公众对未来欧盟成员国退出的看法

IF 4.5 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
West European Politics Pub Date : 2023-01-23 eCollection Date: 2024-01-01 DOI:10.1080/01402382.2022.2164135
Joseph Ganderson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

舆论研究表明,欧洲人普遍认为英国脱欧是一则警世寓言,而非令人鼓舞的可循蓝图。然而,英国脱欧恰恰证明了欧洲解体的可能性,而英国脱欧不过是近期使成员国脱离欧洲的可能性成为焦点的多重危机之一。本文利用来自 16 个国家的最新调查数据,通过逻辑回归,描绘了欧洲人对未来十年欧盟退出可能性的看法。文章发现了非对称动机推理的证据:欧洲怀疑论和支持英国脱欧的观点与认为欧盟可能退欧的观点密切相关,而在 "欧洲迷"(Europhiles)中,这种关联只是有所改善,而不是逆转。这揭示了两个差距,对理解欧盟舆论动态产生了影响。首先,欧洲怀疑论政策精英在退欧问题上的政策立场有所缓和,而他们的支持者则坚定地认为进一步退欧仍有可能。其次,疑欧派对英国脱欧的怀疑与对欧盟凝聚力仍然缺乏信心之间的差距。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exiting after Brexit: public perceptions of future European Union member state departures.

Public opinion scholarship suggests that Europeans broadly interpret Brexit as a cautionary fable rather than an encouraging blueprint to follow. Yet, Brexit singularly demonstrates the possibility of European disintegration, and is but one of multiple recent crises that have brought the potential for member state departures into focus. Drawing on new survey data from 16 countries and using logistic regressions, this article charts Europeans' perceptions of the likelihood future EU exits over the next decade. It finds evidence of asymmetric motivated reasoning: Euroscepticism and pro-Brexit views strongly associate with perceiving exits likely, while among Europhiles this association is only ameliorated, not reversed. This reveals two gaps with repercussions for understanding EU public opinion dynamics. First, between Eurosceptic policy elites' softened policy stances on exit and their supporters' steadfast sense that further departures remain likely. Second, between Europhiles' scepticism of Brexit and a residual lack of confidence in EU cohesion.

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来源期刊
West European Politics
West European Politics POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
10.00
自引率
7.10%
发文量
58
期刊介绍: West European Politics (WEP)has established itself as one of the most authoritative journals covering political and social issues in Western Europe. It has a substantial reviews section and coverage of all national elections in Western Europe. Its comprehensive scope, embracing all the major political and social developments in all West European countries, including the European Union, makes it essential reading for both political practitioners and academics.
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