Robust design of complex socio-technical systems against seasonal effects: a network motif-based approach

Abstract Seasonal effects can significantly impact the robustness of socio-technical systems (STS) to demand fluctuations. There is an increasing need to develop novel design approaches that can support capacity planning decisions for enhancing the robustness of STS against seasonal effects. This paper proposes a new network motif-based approach to supporting capacity planning in STS for an improved seasonal robustness. Network motifs are underlying nonrandom subgraphs within a complex network. In this approach, we introduce three motif-based metrics for system performance evaluation and capacity planning decision-making. The first one is the imbalance score of a motif (e.g., a local service network), the second one is the measurement of a motif’s seasonal robustness, and the third one is a capacity planning decision criterion. Based on these three metrics, we validate that the sensitivity of STS performance against seasonal effects is highly correlated with the imbalanced capacity between service nodes in an STS. Correspondingly, we formulate a design optimisation problem to improve the robustness of STS by rebalancing the resources at critical service nodes. To demonstrate the utility of the approach, a case study on Divvy bike-sharing system in Chicago is conducted. With a focus on the size-3 motifs (a subgraph consisting three docked stations), we find that there is a significant correlation between the difference of the number of docks among the stations in a motif and the return/rental performance of such a motif against seasonal changes. Guided by this finding, our design approach can successfully balance out the number of docks between those stations that have caused the most severe seasonal perturbations. The results also imply that the network motifs can be an effective local structural representation in support of STS robust design. Our approach can be generally applied in other STS where the system performances are significantly impacted by seasonal changes, for example, supply chain networks, transportation systems and power grids.