老龄化、人均产出和长期停滞

IF 8.1 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

American Economic Review-Insights Pub Date : 2019-09-01 DOI:10.1257/AERI.20180383

Gauti B. Eggertsson, M. Lancastre, L. Summers

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引用次数: 12

摘要

本文重新审视了人口老龄化与经济增长的关系。我们确认了Cutler et al.(1990)和Acemoglu and Restrepo(2017)等先前的研究表明人口老龄化与人均产出增长呈正相关。我们的贡献是证明，当利率调整受到名义利率下限的抑制时，这种关系就会破裂，就像在大金融危机期间那样。事实上，在2008年至2015年在许多国家盛行的“长期停滞制度”期间，老龄化对生活水平产生了负面影响，这与长期停滞假说相一致。(jel e23, e32, e43, g01, i31, j14)

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Aging, Output Per Capita, and Secular Stagnation

This paper re-examines the relationship between population aging and economic growth. We confirm previous research such as Cutler et al. (1990) and Acemoglu and Restrepo (2017) that show positive correlation between population aging and per capita output growth. Our contribution is demonstrating that this relationship breaks down when the adjustment of interest rates is inhibited by a lower bound on nominal rates, as during the Great Financial Crisis decade. Indeed, during the “secular stagnation regime” of 2008–2015 that prevailed in a number of countries, aging had a negative impact on living standards, consistent with the secular stagnation hypothesis. (JEL E23, E32, E43, G01, I31, J14)

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American Economic Review-Insights ECONOMICS-

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期刊介绍： The journal American Economic Review: Insights (AER: Insights) is a publication that caters to a wide audience interested in economics. It shares the same standards of quality and significance as the American Economic Review (AER) but focuses specifically on papers that offer important insights communicated concisely. AER: Insights releases four issues annually, covering a diverse range of topics in economics.