Outer Space: From Sanctuary to Warfighting Domain?

At the early stage of humankind’s Space Age, the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America showed an inclination to non-militarize outer space, but distrust also prompted them to carry out a series of high-altitude nuclear tests. In the end, while the non-militarization aspiration materialized on celestial bodies, in the outer void space between them only Weapons of Mass Destruction were prohibited. The last few decades have witnessed the incremental militarization of the Earth orbits. The initial phase of militarization, primarily for surveillance and early warning, was conducive to international peace and security. It is in the next phase, when space systems were integrated into warfighting capabilities and Ballistic Missile Defense systems, that outer space embarked on its reduction into a domain of conflicts. This trend was subtle in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, and didn’t become clear until the new millennium when new space powers emerged. Today, space-based weapons and terrestrial Anti-Satellite Weapons (ASATs) form the primary security concerns for space powers, depending on their relative space capability. The disparity is difficult to reconcile, putting space arms control literally on a halt. As States with counter-space capability are also highly reliant on space, there is a growing voluntary moratorium against the test and use of debris-generating ASATs and conflicts in space are likely to take an electronic and/or cyber form. The recent rise of the strategy of “deterrence and superiority” in space, however, may distract from the formation of this voluntary moratorium, aggravate an arms race in outer space, and even increase the risk of a full-scale conflict in space.