Altman、Grover、Zmijewski和Springate财务困境预测的比较分析

Enggar Prasetianingtias, Dewi Kusumowati
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引用次数: 11

摘要

本研究旨在验证Altman、Grover、Zmijewski和Springate模型预测财务困境的准确性。通过分析每个模型的准确性水平进行了比较。本研究中的变量是Altman、Grover、Zmijewski和Springate在预测财务困境时的财务比率。这些数据来自印尼证券交易所网站上发布的年度财务报告。使用的样本是2016-2017年在IDX上市的一家农业公司。抽样技术是有目的的抽样,共抽样34家公司。有目的抽样的标准是那些发布2016-2017年年度财务报表的公司,以及截至当年的交易日的股价数据。通过与实际情况的比较,结果表明Grover G-Score模型是一个预测模型,准确率高达85.29%。Grover模型中负净收入和股息支付的百分比比较为85%。Springate模型的准确率为83.82%,Altman模型的准确度为68.65%,最后一个是Zmijewski模型,准确度为25%。DOI:https://doi.org/10.26905/ap.v5i1.3072
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analisis Perbandingan Model Altman, Grover, Zmijewski Dan Springate Sebagai Prediksi Financial Distress
This study aims to compate the accuracy of Altman, Grover, Zmijewski and Springate models to predict financial distress. Comparison has done by analyzing the level of accuracy of each model. The variables in this study are the financial ratios of Altman, Grover, Zmijewski, and Springate towards accuracy in predicting Financial Distress. The data has been taken from annual financial reports that published on the Indonesian Stock Exchange website. The sample used is an agriculture company listed on the IDX during 2016-2017. The sampling technique was purposive sampling with a total sample of 34 companies. The criteria in purposive sampling are companies that publish annual financial statements in the period 2016-2017 and stock price data are available on the trading date ending in the year. The results show that the Grover G-Score model is a prediction model with a high accuracy of 85.29% by comparing it with actual conditions. The percentage comparison of Negative Net Income and dividend payment in the Grover model has a percentage of 85%. The Springate model has an accuracy rate of 83.82%, Altman with an accuracy rate of 68.65% and the last is Zmijewski with an accuracy of 25%. DOI:  https://doi.org/10.26905/ap.v5i1.3072
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