气候和土地覆盖变化下非洲象（Loxodonta africana）大陆范围变化的建模：对未来物种保护的影响

IF 0.6 4区生物学 Q4 ZOOLOGY

African Zoology Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI:10.1080/15627020.2020.1846617

S. Dejene, K. Mpakairi, R. Kanagaraj, Yussuf A. Wato, Sewnet Mengistu

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引用次数: 6

摘要

气候和土地利用的变化预计将改变野生动物的分布，因为它们会影响饲料的数量和质量、水循环以及关键资源的竞争。使用一组物种分布模型（SDM），我们试图预测非洲象（Loxodonta africana）的分布变化，以应对非洲的气候和土地覆盖变化。我们发现，非洲象的分布主要受温度变化、降水和土地覆盖变化的驱动。我们的研究结果表明，在当前气候条件下，17.1%的大陆对非洲乳杆菌表现出高度适宜性，而在类似气候条件下则有56.6%的大陆不适宜。模拟的当前适宜性表明，预计非洲乳杆菌的高适宜区和中等适宜区将出现在非洲东部、南部和西部部分地区。到2050年，代表性集中通道（RCP）4.5和RCP 8.5下大象的不适宜区域预计将分别增加12.7%和14.1%。相比之下，根据RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5，非洲乳杆菌的高度适宜面积预计将分别减少51.3%和67.6%。与目前的气候条件相比，在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下，2070个非洲乳杆菌高度适宜的地区预计将分别减少74.5%和85.9%。气候变化和土地覆盖变化预计将恶化，并成为非洲象等几种野生动物物种损失的主要驱动因素之一，因为它们会影响水和饲料的供应。因此，在全球变化下保护和管理大象种群需要精心设计迁徙走廊，保护跨境景观，使大象和其他相关物种能够分散到更有利的环境中。

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Modelling Continental Range Shift of the African Elephant (Loxodonta africana) Under a Changing Climate and Land Cover: Implications for Future Conservation of the Species

Climate and land use change are anticipated to alter the distribution of wildlife, due to their impact on the quantity and quality of forage availability, water cycle, as well as competition for key resources. Using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we sought to predict changes in the distribution of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana) in response to climatic and land cover change in Africa. We found that African elephant distribution is driven predominantly by changes in temperature followed by changes in precipitation and land cover. Our results show that 17.1% of the continent shows high suitability for L. africana under the current climatic conditions, while 56.6% is unsuitable under similar climatic conditions. The modelled current suitability shows that high and moderately suitable areas for L. africana are predicted to occur in the eastern, southern and part of western Africa. In 2050, unsuitable area for elephants under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 is projected to increase by 12.7% and 14.1%, respectively. In contrast, the highly suitable area for L. africana is projected to decrease by 51.3% and 67.6% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Compared to the current climatic conditions, in 2070 highly suitable areas for L. africana are projected to decrease by 74.5% and 85.9% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. Climate change and land cover change are expected to worsen and become one of the major drivers for the loss of several wildlife species like the African elephant due to their impact on availability of water and forage. Therefore, conservation and management of elephant populations under global change calls for carefully designed migratory corridors and conservation of trans-frontier landscapes to enable dispersal of the elephants and other associated species to more conducive environments.

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来源期刊

African Zoology 生物-动物学

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

9.10%

发文量

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： African Zoology , a peer-reviewed research journal, publishes original scientific contributions and critical reviews that focus principally on African fauna in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. Research from other regions that advances practical and theoretical aspects of zoology will be considered. Rigorous question-driven research in all aspects of zoology will take precedence over descriptive research. The Journal publishes full-length papers, critical reviews, short communications, letters to the editors as well as book reviews. Contributions based on purely observational, descriptive or anecdotal data will not be considered. The Journal is produced by NISC in association with the Zoological Society of South Africa (ZSSA). Acceptance of papers is the responsibility of the Editors-in-Chief in consultation with the Editors and members of the Editorial Advisory Board. All views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the Editors or the Department.