基于贝叶斯推理的HIV/AIDS现状预测

IF 1.8 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Natural Resource Modeling Pub Date : 2021-09-28 DOI:10.1111/nrm.12332

K. Prieto, Jhoana P. Romero–Leiton

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引用次数: 2

摘要

在这项研究中，我们解决了将数学模型拟合到人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）/获得性免疫缺陷综合征（AIDS）数据的问题。我们使用贝叶斯推理对公式化的数学模型进行了定量分析。数学模型由一个合适的简单常微分方程组组成。我们对参数进行局部和全局敏感性分析，以确定模型的哪些参数与疾病的传播和流行最相关。我们公式化了与模型参数估计相关的逆问题，并使用贝叶斯统计来解决它。然后，我们根据模型参数的估计来估计该疾病的基本繁殖数，并通过假设检验检验其与模型的比较。该数据集由卢森堡、捷克共和国、日本、克罗地亚、联合王国和墨西哥的艾滋病毒和艾滋病数据组成。

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Current forecast of HIV/AIDS using Bayesian inference

In this study, we address the problem of fitting a mathematical model to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) data. We present a quantitative analysis of the formulated mathematical model by using Bayesian inference. The mathematical model consists of a suitable simple system of ordinary differential equations. We perform a local and global sensitivity analysis of parameters to determine which parameters of the model are the most relevant for the transmission and prevalence of the disease. We formulate the inverse problem associated to the parameter estimation of the model, and solve it using Bayesian statistics. Then, we estimate the basic reproductive number of the disease based on the estimation of the parameters of the model and its comparison with one is tested through hypothesis tests. The data set consist of HIV and AIDS data from Luxembourg, Czech Republic, Japan, Croatia, United Kingdom, and Mexico.

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来源期刊

Natural Resource Modeling 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

3.50

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

>36 weeks

期刊介绍： Natural Resource Modeling is an international journal devoted to mathematical modeling of natural resource systems. It reflects the conceptual and methodological core that is common to model building throughout disciplines including such fields as forestry, fisheries, economics and ecology. This core draws upon the analytical and methodological apparatus of mathematics, statistics, and scientific computing.