在匈牙利死亡率数据上检验李-卡特模型

IF 0.7 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Acta Oeconomica Pub Date : 2023-03-27 DOI:10.1556/032.2023.00010

Gábor Petneházi, J. Gáll

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文对流行的Lee-Carter模型在匈牙利死亡率预测中的表现进行了检验。匈牙利经历了一场死亡率危机，这使得这项任务特别困难。验证先前的预测和模型选择，并生成更新的预测。我们发现死亡率的行为正在正常化，因此基本的李-卡特模型正变得适用。

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Testing the Lee-Carter model on Hungarian mortality data

This article tests the popular Lee-Carter model's performance for Hungarian mortality rate forecasting. Hungary passed through a mortality crisis which makes the task particularly difficult. Previous forecasts and model choices are validated, and updated forecasts are produced. We find that the behaviour of mortality rates is normalizing, and so the basic Lee-Carter model is becoming applicable.

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来源期刊

Acta Oeconomica ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.40

自引率

25.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Acta Oeconomica publishes articles on Eastern European and Hungarian economic transition, theoretical and general issues of the transition process, economic policy, econometrics and mathematical economics. Space is also devoted to international economics, European integration, labour economics, industrial organisation, finance and business economics.Publishes book reviews and advertisements.