人工神经网络在孟加拉国Sylhet地区Surma河洪峰流量预测中的应用

Q2 Social Sciences
A. A. Ahmed, Syed Mustakim Ali Shah
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引用次数: 6

摘要

河流流量分析和预测是水资源规划中的一项重要任务,特别是对于孟加拉国这样一个灾害易发的农业国家。本研究采用径向基函数(RBF)和多层感知器(MLP)两种人工神经网络模型对苏尔马河流量进行分析,并基于5个输入参数估计其峰值流量浓度。采用相关系数(R)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和模型效率(EFF%)来衡量所选模型的性能。然而,RBF网络模型优于MLP网络模型,模型效率高(99.55%),均方误差低(38.60),相关系数高(0.996),其中RBF网络的最佳神经元数为18个,MPL网络的最佳神经元数为22个。此外,所提出的人工神经网络模型可以成功地用于苏尔马河的峰值流量估算,为该地区的水资源管理政策提供参考。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Application of artificial neural networks to predict peak flow of Surma River in Sylhet Zone of Bangladesh
River flow analysis and prediction is an important task in water resources planning, particularly for a disaster-prone agricultural country like Bangladesh. The present study used two ANN models namely radial basis function (RBF) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) to analyse Surma River flow and estimate its peak flow concentration based on five input parameters. The performances of selected models were measured using the correlation coefficient (R), mean absolute error (MAE) and model efficiency (EFF%). However, RBF network model performed better than MLP network model with high model efficiency (99.55%), low mean squared errors (38.60) and high correlation coefficient (0.996), where the optimum number of neurons was 18 for RBF and 22 for MPL network. Moreover, the proposed ANN models could be used successfully in estimating the peak-flow of the Surma River, which would facilitate water resources management policy of this region.
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来源期刊
International Journal of Water
International Journal of Water Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
0.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
期刊介绍: The IJW is a fully refereed journal, providing a high profile international outlet for analyses and discussions of all aspects of water, environment and society.
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