如何通过需求侧调控房价

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance
S. Ajija, Indah Pratiwi, Wasiaturrahma Wasiaturrahma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在从需求侧考察和分析发达国家和发展中国家影响房价的因素。它使用广义矩量法对房价指数的因变量和自变量进行了测试,包括实际利率、信贷、经济和人口增长。本研究使用了2005年至2017年的54个面板数据,这些数据分为31个发达国家和23个发展中国家小组。这项研究试图有助于观察宏观审慎和货币政策在全球发达市场和新兴市场控制房价方面的作用,并寻找信贷增长与房价之间的关系,因为信贷是最接近实体部门的宏观谨慎和货币政策渠道。结果表明,利率、信贷、经济和人口增长对房价有显著影响。利率变量对房价有负面影响,而信贷、经济增长和人口增长对房价有积极影响。影响系数的大小不同于发达国家,比发展中国家具有更显著的影响。另一个结果表明,发达国家信贷增长增强导致的房价指数改善幅度大于发展中国家。此外,该研究为政策制定者控制房价提供了建议,因为房价下跌会引发金融危机。因此,政府需要介入金融机构,加大住房金融体系的审慎性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
How to Control the House Prices Through the Demand Sides
This study aims to examine and analyze the factors, which influence house prices from the demand side in developed and developing countries. It was tested using the Generalized Method of Moments with the dependent and the independent variable of the house price index involving real interest rates, credit, economic, and population growth. This study uses 54 panel data which is divided into 31 sub-groups of developed countries and 23 developing countries from 2005 to 2017. This research tries to contribute in observing the role of macroprudential and monetary policies in controlling housing prices globally in both developed and emerging markets as well as looking for the relationship between credit growth and house prices because credit is the closest macroprudential and monetary policy channel to the real sector. The results showed that interest rates, credit, economic, and population growth significantly effect housing prices. Interest rate variables have a negative effect, while credit, economic growth, and population growth have a positive effect on house prices. The influence coefficient's magnitude is different from developed countries to have a more significant influence than developing countries. Another result show that improvement of house price index caused by credit growth enhancement in developed countries greater than in developing countries. Furthermore, the study provides suggestions for policymakers to control house prices due to a reduction, which causes financial crisis. Therefore, the government needs to enter into financial institutions to increase prudence in the housing finance system.
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来源期刊
Iranian Economic Review
Iranian Economic Review Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
CiteScore
0.70
自引率
0.00%
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