排放预测及空气污染浓度极限值-使用EMEP4PL模式的个案研究

IF 0.5 4区环境科学与生态学 Q4 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

International Journal of Environment and Pollution Pub Date : 2019-08-22 DOI:10.1504/IJEP.2019.10023404

M. Werner, M. Kryza, K. Wałaszek

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引用次数: 2

摘要

在这项研究中，我们在波兰上空应用了4公里×4公里的高空间分辨率的EMEP/MS-W模型（EMEP4PL），并在2015年和2030年运行了该模型。在第二次模拟中，我们使用了GAINSPRIMES排放预测，并保留了2015年的气象数据。尽管模型结果令人满意，并可与其他欧洲国家的结果相比较，但与2015年的观测结果相比，超过限值的天数被严重低估。这表明，该模型在模拟冬季非常高的颗粒物浓度方面是有限的。因此，我们根据2015年的观测结果和模型结果，对2030年进行了偏差校正。偏差校正模拟显示，在104个站点中的60个站点，2030年PM10日限值将至少超过35次。

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Emission projections and limit values of air pollution concentration - a case study using the EMEP4PL model

In this study, we applied the EMEP/MSC-W model at a high spatial resolution of 4 km × 4 km over Poland (EMEP4PL), and ran the model for the whole of the years 2015 and 2030. For the second simulation we used GAINS PRIMES emission projection and kept the meteorology from 2015. Although the model results are satisfactory and comparable to the results in other European countries, the number of days with exceedances of the limit value is highly underestimated in comparison to observations for 2015. It shows that the model is limited in its simulation of very high particulate matter concentrations in the winter season. Therefore, we applied a bias correction for the year 2030 based on the observations and model results for the year 2015. Bias corrected simulation shows that at 60 stations (out of 104), the PM10 daily limit value will be exceeded at least 35 times in 2030.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Environment and Pollution 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

4.5 months

期刊介绍： IJEP provides an international forum in the field of environment and pollution and addresses early and medium-term challenges involving scientific prediction, modelling and assessment. It focuses on ground-breaking research in the science of environmental pollution, at the early scientific stage. It is one of three key journals which together offer complete coverage of environmental issues: IJETM focuses on technical/engineering, policy and management solutions for environmental problems, and IJGEnvI focuses on future, longer-term environmental scenarios, ecological economics, climate change and biodiversity.