Southeast Asian Public Perceptions of China: Clusters and Gaps

This study offers an analysis of cross-country difference in Southeast Asian public opinion on China in the mid-2010s, using data from the Asian Barometer Survey (ABS). I pursue two empirical questions: (1) how China fared in perceived influence and positivity compared to the U.S. at the national level and (2) what perception gaps existed in regional and national assessments of China’s positive impact. The findings indicate that public perceptions by country are not radically different from commonly known government-level orientations toward China. Yet there are interesting patterns of clusters across countries and gaps in perceptions. First, some countries consistently regard China more influential and more beneficial than the U.S. while others face a contradiction between China being more influential but less beneficial than the U.S. Second, in all countries, Southeast Asian respondents think that the extent to which China benefits their own country is greater than the extent to which China benefits the region, implying a potential collective action problem for a coherent regional response. It is also interesting to note that the largest perception gap is reported in the Philippines, the country at the forefront of the South China Sea disputes with China. The findings contribute to the larger literature on Southeast Asia’s alignment choices in the face of the US-China strategic competition.