基于SARIMA的中长期负荷预测

Q3 Environmental Science

Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI:10.13052/spee1048-5236.4222

Chunli Yin, Kai Liu, Qiangjian Zhang, Kai Hu, Zheng Yang, Li Yang, Na Zhao

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引用次数: 2

摘要

电力系统的运行和规划在很大程度上依赖于M-LTLF，其复杂性和非线性使得传统的中长期预测模型难以产生可靠的结果。本文对M-LTLF选择SARIMA模型，并对模型参数进行了调整。本研究以整个云南省的用电量数据为研究对象。其中，以2008 - 2018年用电量数据作为训练样本进行拟合分析，对2019 - 2020年全省用电量进行预测。结果表明SARIMA模型对M-LTLF的有效性和可行性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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SARIMA-Based Medium- and Long-Term Load Forecasting

The operation and planning of power systems depend heavily on M-LTLF, which is complicated and nonlinear, making it challenging for conventional medium- and long-term forecasting models to produce reliable results. The SARIMA model is chosen for M-LTLF in this study, and the model’s parameters are tuned. This study takes the electricity consumption data of the whole Yunnan as the research object. Among them, the electricity consumption data from 2008 to 2018 is used as a training sample for fitting and analysis, and the electricity consumption of the whole province is predicted from 2019 to 2020. The end results demonstrate the viability and efficacy of the SARIMA model for M-LTLF.

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来源期刊

Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

0.00%

发文量