哥伦比亚财政信誉对投资预期的影响:2005-2019年期间的经验证据

Q3 Social Sciences

Desarrollo y Sociedad Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI:10.13043/dys.92.8

Cristina Isabel Ramos Barroso, Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro

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引用次数: 2

摘要

财政信誉在为投资和经济增长创造有利环境方面发挥着重要作用。对公共财政的适当管理可以在认识国家风险和吸引外国资本方面起决定性作用。本文的目的是建立一个财政可信度指数，并评估其对2005-2019年期间哥伦比亚投资预期的影响。使用财政可信度、投资预期和一组控制变量的月度数据，使用OLS和GMM方法进行估计。采用脉冲响应函数进行稳健性检验。研究结果表明，财政信用直接影响私人代理人的投资决策，而当地利率和国际波动对投资者的预期产生负向影响。

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Efectos de la credibilidad fiscal sobre las expectativas de inversión en Colombia: evidencia empírica para el periodo 2005-2019

Fiscal credibility plays an important role in creating favorable scenarios for investment and economic growth. Adequate management of public finances can be decisive in the perception of country risk and the attraction of foreign capital. The aim of this paper is to build a fiscal credibility index and eval-uate its impact on investment expectations in Colombia for the 2005-2019 period. Using monthly data on fiscal credibility, investment expectations, and a set of control variables, estimates were made using OLS and GMM meth-ods. Robustness tests were performed using impulse-response functions. The findings reveal that fiscal credibility directly influences the investment deci-sions of private agents, and that local interest rates and international volatility negatively affect investors’ expectations.

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来源期刊

Desarrollo y Sociedad Social Sciences-Political Science and International Relations

CiteScore

1.00

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad is an academic and open access journal, published each semester, that belongs to the Centro de Estudios sobre Desarrollo y Sociedad (CEDE) of the School of Economics at Universidad de los Andes (Colombia). The journal seeks to disseminate the investigations and academic projects develop at Universities and Research Centers, at a national and international level; it is addressed to economists and researchers of related fields. The special editions are selected aiming to choose topics highly relevant to the area of Economy. The call for papers is permanently open.