在当前和未来的气候变化情景下,墨西哥圆形假丝蛾的地理分布:对牛麻痹性狂犬病感染的影响

IF 0.2 4区 农林科学 Q2 Veterinary
H. Zarza, E. Martínez‐Meyer, G. Suzán, G. Ceballos
{"title":"在当前和未来的气候变化情景下,墨西哥圆形假丝蛾的地理分布:对牛麻痹性狂犬病感染的影响","authors":"H. Zarza, E. Martínez‐Meyer, G. Suzán, G. Ceballos","doi":"10.21753/VMOA.4.3.390","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Climate change may modify the spatial distribution of reservoirs hosting emerging and reemerging zoonotic pathogens, and forecasting these changes is essential for developing prevention and adaptation strategies. The most important reservoir of bovine paralytic rabies in tropical countries, is the vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus). In Mexico, the cattle industry loses more than $2.6 million US dollar, annually to this infectious disease. Therefore, we predicted the change in the distribution of D. rotundus due to future climate change scenarios, and examined the likely effect that the change in its distribution will have on paralytic rabies infections in Mexico. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model algorithm to predict the potential distribution of D. rotundus. Consistent with the literature, our results showed that temperature was the variable most highly associated with the current distribution of vampire bats. The highest concentration of bovine rabies was in Central and Southeastern Mexico, regions that also have high cattle population densities. Furthermore, our climatic envelope models predicted that by 2050–2070, D. rotundus will lose 20 % of its current distribution while the northern and central regions of Mexico will become suitable habitats for D. rotundus. Together, our study provides an advanced notice of the likely change in spatial patterns of D. rotundus and bovine paralytic rabies, and presents an important tool for strengthening the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and Monitoring programmes, useful for establishing holistic, long-term strategies to control this disease in Mexico.","PeriodicalId":49387,"journal":{"name":"Veterinaria Mexico","volume":"4 1","pages":"10-25"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2000,"publicationDate":"2017-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.21753/VMOA.4.3.390","citationCount":"18","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: Implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection\",\"authors\":\"H. Zarza, E. Martínez‐Meyer, G. Suzán, G. Ceballos\",\"doi\":\"10.21753/VMOA.4.3.390\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Climate change may modify the spatial distribution of reservoirs hosting emerging and reemerging zoonotic pathogens, and forecasting these changes is essential for developing prevention and adaptation strategies. The most important reservoir of bovine paralytic rabies in tropical countries, is the vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus). In Mexico, the cattle industry loses more than $2.6 million US dollar, annually to this infectious disease. Therefore, we predicted the change in the distribution of D. rotundus due to future climate change scenarios, and examined the likely effect that the change in its distribution will have on paralytic rabies infections in Mexico. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model algorithm to predict the potential distribution of D. rotundus. Consistent with the literature, our results showed that temperature was the variable most highly associated with the current distribution of vampire bats. The highest concentration of bovine rabies was in Central and Southeastern Mexico, regions that also have high cattle population densities. Furthermore, our climatic envelope models predicted that by 2050–2070, D. rotundus will lose 20 % of its current distribution while the northern and central regions of Mexico will become suitable habitats for D. rotundus. Together, our study provides an advanced notice of the likely change in spatial patterns of D. rotundus and bovine paralytic rabies, and presents an important tool for strengthening the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and Monitoring programmes, useful for establishing holistic, long-term strategies to control this disease in Mexico.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49387,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Veterinaria Mexico\",\"volume\":\"4 1\",\"pages\":\"10-25\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-06-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.21753/VMOA.4.3.390\",\"citationCount\":\"18\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Veterinaria Mexico\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"97\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.21753/VMOA.4.3.390\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"农林科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"Veterinary\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Veterinaria Mexico","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.21753/VMOA.4.3.390","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"Veterinary","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18

摘要

气候变化可能改变新出现和再出现的人畜共患病原体宿主的空间分布,预测这些变化对于制定预防和适应战略至关重要。在热带国家,牛麻痹性狂犬病最重要的宿主是吸血蝙蝠。在墨西哥,养牛业每年因这种传染病损失260多万美元。因此,我们预测了未来气候变化情景下圆形鼠的分布变化,并研究了其分布变化对墨西哥麻痹性狂犬病感染的可能影响。采用基于相关最大熵的模型算法,预测了圆齿草的潜在分布。与文献一致,我们的结果表明,温度是与吸血蝙蝠当前分布最密切相关的变量。牛狂犬病最集中的地区是墨西哥中部和东南部,这些地区的牛种群密度也很高。此外,我们的气候包络模型预测,到2050-2070年,圆轮菌的分布将减少20%,而墨西哥北部和中部地区将成为圆轮菌的适宜栖息地。总之,我们的研究提供了圆形D.和牛麻痹性狂犬病可能发生的空间格局变化的提前通知,并为加强国家流行病学监测系统和监测规划提供了重要工具,有助于建立墨西哥控制该疾病的整体长期战略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Geographic distribution of Desmodus rotundus in Mexico under current and future climate change scenarios: Implications for bovine paralytic rabies infection
Climate change may modify the spatial distribution of reservoirs hosting emerging and reemerging zoonotic pathogens, and forecasting these changes is essential for developing prevention and adaptation strategies. The most important reservoir of bovine paralytic rabies in tropical countries, is the vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus). In Mexico, the cattle industry loses more than $2.6 million US dollar, annually to this infectious disease. Therefore, we predicted the change in the distribution of D. rotundus due to future climate change scenarios, and examined the likely effect that the change in its distribution will have on paralytic rabies infections in Mexico. We used the correlative maximum entropy based model algorithm to predict the potential distribution of D. rotundus. Consistent with the literature, our results showed that temperature was the variable most highly associated with the current distribution of vampire bats. The highest concentration of bovine rabies was in Central and Southeastern Mexico, regions that also have high cattle population densities. Furthermore, our climatic envelope models predicted that by 2050–2070, D. rotundus will lose 20 % of its current distribution while the northern and central regions of Mexico will become suitable habitats for D. rotundus. Together, our study provides an advanced notice of the likely change in spatial patterns of D. rotundus and bovine paralytic rabies, and presents an important tool for strengthening the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and Monitoring programmes, useful for establishing holistic, long-term strategies to control this disease in Mexico.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Veterinaria Mexico
Veterinaria Mexico VETERINARY SCIENCES-
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Veterinaria México OA (ISSN 2448-6760) is an online scientific journal edited by Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). The journal is Open Access and follows UNAM''s initiative, to transmit knowledge free of charge to the readership and authors, with no Article Processing Charges. This journal publishes advances in Veterinary Sciences and Animal Production, and to reach more lectures across the world the journal was updated since 2014 from its predecessor printed in paper Veterinaria México (ISSN 0301-5092) and its digital version (ISSN 2007-5472).
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信