自由裁量反周期财政政策为何如此困难?对32个经合组织国家的分析

IF 0.8 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Cesifo Economic Studies Pub Date : 2023-04-03 DOI:10.1093/cesifo/ifad001

J. de Haan, Bram Gootjes

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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们通过比较每个国家/年的产出缺口和周期调整预算平衡变化的迹象，研究了32个经合组织国家从1986年到2023年的财政政策立场。我们发现，财政政策往往是顺周期的。我们使用比较统计对国家-年观察与顺周期和逆周期政策检验可能的解释。我们的证据表明，财政规则和制度质量与顺周期性的普遍程度无关。同样，解释顺周期财政政策的几个政治经济学论点也没有得到强有力的支持。然而，难以获得融资使得财政政策更具顺周期性。(JEL代码:E62、H50、H62)

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What Makes Discretionary Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy so Difficult? An Analysis of 32 OECD Countries

We examine the stance of fiscal policy for 32 OECD countries from 1986 to 2023 by comparing for each country-year observation the signs of the output gap and the change in the cyclically adjusted budget balance. We find that fiscal policies are often pro-cyclical. We test possible explanations using comparative statistics for country-year observations with pro- and counter-cyclical policies. Our evidence suggests that fiscal rules and institutional quality are not related to the prevalence of pro-cyclicality. Likewise, several political-economy arguments suggested for explaining pro-cyclical fiscal policies do not receive strong support. However, poor access to finance makes fiscal policies more pro-cyclical. (JEL codes: E62, H50, and H62)

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来源期刊

Cesifo Economic Studies ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

7.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： CESifo Economic Studies publishes provocative, high-quality papers in economics, with a particular focus on policy issues. Papers by leading academics are written for a wide and global audience, including those in government, business, and academia. The journal combines theory and empirical research in a style accessible to economists across all specialisations.